12/22/2008 - Real-time Commentary

Today's post is being written in real-time throughout the day to capture my thoughts and trades. We'll see how this turns out. All posted times are in central time zone (Chicago).

8:49 AM - Shorted 1 ES @ 880.25 (new system)
8:58 AM - Covered 1 ES @ 778.50 for +1.75 pts (discretionary exit; system did not signal an exit till 875.25 for +5 pts)
9:13 AM - Long 2 ES @ 875.00 (my method). 875 is an area of support. Check the DOM/Market-Depth at this price level. Volume dried up big time at 874.
9:42 AM - Exit 2 ES @ 877.50 for +2.50 pts (discretionary exit; heading to a meeting in a few minutes and didn't want to continue holding).

9:50 AM - 880 area is the continuous volume trend and is proving to be strong resistance. Bulls will have to bust through that for any sizable move to the up side. 886.50 is first hour high. I think fading any up move in the 885-888 area will turn a profit.

9:59 AM - Off to a meeting now.

11:09 AM - Damn, that was a long meeting. The first 1/2 hour was valuable, the remaining 40 minutes was BS and a complete waste of time.

11:26 AM - Long 2 ES @ 869.75 (new system). 2.50 pt stop @ 867.00

11:48 AM - Exit 1 ES @ 871.75 for +2 pts (discretionary exit). Moving stop to break-even on remaining 1 contract.
11:49 AM - Stepping out for lunch.

12:42 PM - Price hasn't really moved much. Exiting remaining 1 contract at 872 for +2.25 pts (discretionary exit). The volume trend was around 875 on this prior swing up when price hit a high of 874.25. If I was around, I would have exited right around 874. At the moment, the volume trend is at 875.50 acting as resistance. Price will need to break through that for any real upside. Until then, short the pops.

12:56 PM - Should've exited and reversed to short. I can't continuously monitor the charts at work so I'm not expecting to get every trade.

1:07 PM - Just took a quick look at the charts. At this point, I'm expecting some chop/range-bound price action. Going long above 875 and shorting a break of 866 is probably the way to go to avoid chop.

1:20 PM - New system signaled a short at 866.75 at 12:57 PM on the 1830 tick time-frame. Another missed entry.

1:24 PM - Well, looks like the earlier analysis was correct and shorting a break of 866 would have netted over 3 points. ES is currently at 862.50. I'm expecting support at 860. Should produce a little bounce back up to 866. Lets see.

1:28 PM - Long 1 ES @ 860 with a 2 point stop. Check the DOM/Market-Depth; barely any volume in the 859s. I'm guessing the bears wanted to trigger some stops at 859, but the lack of volume tells me bears are gonna have to press harder to cut through this.

1:31 PM - Exit @ 861 for +1 pt. I'm 90% sure this was an early exit.

1:43 PM - Off to another meeting. Will be in meetings for the rest of the day, so no more trades.

2:56 PM - Just got back from one of the meetings, and about to head to the next. The symmetrical triangle is holding on the Daily chart.

3:48 PM - Net for the day was +3.50 pts on trades using my current method, and +6 pts using the new system/method which I'm forward testing these days. +9.50 pts/contract. Not bad for a Monday when more than half my day is booked in meetings. I like this real-time commentary and will try to continue posting in this manner. Let me know what you think!

Symmetrical Triangle on the Daily


Market Structure/Balance (5-min)