Friday 03/27/09 - Discipline is Key

Closing the charts early today (12:03 PM) with a nice gain of +$740.90. I'm not too excited since I did put on 5 contracts on one of the trades which provided bulk of the profit. I don't normally add to a losing position but I did just that today; I had a hard-stop 1 pt below support, and added to the position when it went against me, and when it went in my favor. Just wanted to experiment with a little more size (I was trading up to 12 contracts in my real $ account back in 2004 so 5 contracts is not out of the question in the real $ account). The key takeaway from today is to stick with the trend, and patiently wait for the market to show its hand before entering a new position. I jumped the gun on my earlier short trades, but was quick to bail for break-even or a tiny gain since I realized I wasn't being disciplined and was entering early before the market provided confirmation. Once I got confirmation, I entered and exited for a quick +2 point gain. Probably should have held on to it for a bit longer, but I have been coding all morning for that IT project which I have to push to Production today or tomorrow, so need to get back to that.

The Blog will be quiet for 2 weeks since I'm leaving this Sunday on a 2-week trip to Geneva, Paris and Dubai. I'll be back in the good ol' U.S. of A on Sunday April 12th, and will resume the regular postings later that week. See ya!

ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Morning Trades)


Open/Unfilled Gap Above at 827.25 - Price came down so close to the previous open gap at 808.75 that I consider that gap filled at this point.


ES/$TICK (3-Min) - Low Avgerage $TICK readings through the early morning climb up indicated weakness.


ES 15-Minute - Yesterday's chart indicated the 808.75 area as support, and it proved to be support today. Low of day was 809.50, at which point price bounced 10.50 points.

Thursday 03/26/09 - Some hint of progress

I lightly traded the PM session today (was busy and distracted with non-market related activities most of the day). I think I did a good job of putting biases aside and trading with an open mind today. I mentioned in yesterday's post that I was expecting continued up-side, so I went Long at 818, slightly above the mid-point. My target was 828 but at the time it looked like price was hitting resistance at 824.50, so I exited at 823 for +5 pts. I should've re-entered long on a pull-back but price often re-tests previous S/R so I stayed out. After price topped out at 829, I scalped it to the short-side for some quick wins. I was aware that the major trend was UP, and price was above the mid-point, so kept the short scalps tight. Support was developing at the 823 level, and I figured if we broke 823, price would re-test the 818 level so I scalped some more on the short-side but didn't really hold out for any large gains due to the underlying strength in the market. I should have gone Long in the late afternoon once price broke out above 823 but I was busy with other stuff and didn't want to give away the earlier gains. Ended the day with a +7.50 pt gain.

Some thoughts for tomorrow. XLF closed above mid-point, so we're starting to see some participation from the financial sector, but not nearly enough. XLE closed below its mid-point, which isn't a good sign for this rally. I would like to see participation across tech, financials and energy. We also now have an open gap at 808.25, which could very easily get filled tomorrow or early next week. I'm aware of the open gap, but am not going to put too much thought/value in the gap-fill play just yet.

On to the charts...

ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Afternoon Trades)


Open/Unfilled Gap at 808.25



ES/$TICK (3-Min)


ES 15-Minute

Wed. 03/25/09 - V Reversal

I had a lunch meeting with a recruiter so wasn't able to trade the morning. I tried trading the afternoon session but TradeStation was not accepting my orders (order would just sit in the queue). I tried shorting 799 before the flush down to 787, but TS refused to accept the orders, so I just sat and watched. I was looking at the 15-min ES chart and noticed that price was holding above the .618 retracement. I was expecting price to bounce back to the .382 retracement in the 798 area, and close above 800, which it did. In the past few months, we've become used to seeing sell offs in the afternoon, but now we're beginning to see some strength come into the market, indicative by today's late afternoon recovery. From reading other blogs and trading sites, everyone and their mother is expecting over-head resistance, and the term "over-bought" is being mentioned a lot. The recent market action is indicating further up-side at the moment. So no trades on my side today, but I still marked up the charts for my own education.

Looking at the 15-min charts, the technology (XLK) and financial (XLF) sectors are looking OK, but there seems to be a lot of selling pressure in the energy sector (XLE), and I'm afraid that sector may hold the S&P back from a strong up-move. I'm not an expert at sector analysis, rotation, or anything else market-related for that matter, but that's just what I'm perceiving at the moment. If 818 holds tomorrow, we could see another short squeeze take place pushing ES above 828.

On another note, I probably won't be trading much tomorrow or Friday since I'm flying out of town this Sunday, and have to finish up a couple of IT projects before then.

On to the charts...

ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Morning Price Action)


ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Late Morning Price Action)


ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Afternoon Price Action)


ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Late Afternoon Price Action)


Gap filled by 1:00 PM


ES/$TICK (3-Min)


ES 15-Minute - Price remained above the 200 EMA.

Tuesday 03/24/09 - Consolidation

In hindsight, almost every trading day looks like it was such a piece of cake to trade, when we all know, things are very different in real-time. In real-time, today was a shitty day; plain and simple. Lot of chop and two-sided trades; lack of momentum, lack of continuation on trend moves, and just overall a bad environment for MY style of trading.

I was up till around 2 AM last night working on non-market stuff, and I know I can't trade while I'm sleepy, so decided to sleep in. I got to my screens around 11 AM, and there wasn't much going on, so scalped it short and then long for +2 pts. I should've held the long trade since price was finding some support around the 808 area (I was long from 809), but at the time, market was looking weak, so I bailed for a point. After I exited, price shot up 3-5 points in a hurry, at which point the risk/reward just wasn't there for me to buy, and I wanted some further confirmation before entering the market again. This brings us to the afternoon trades. Price couldn't reach yesterday's high, which was a warning sign that bulls were losing momentum, but I didn't want to enter short either since price had made a higher high, so I just sat it out. Then price started breaking down, and I entered short and was stopped out for 3 ticks. I got chopped up a bit trying to figure out the direction the market wanted to go, and it was quite frustrating. The market finally showed its hand around 2 PM when it broke the mid-point, but I wasn't at my desk to do anything about it. I had to step away, and told Matt via Yahoo IM that now that I was out of my short, ES would probably tank. and that's exactly what happened. I was a bit paranoid from the lack of follow through I experienced earlier so just took one more quick scalp to the short side when I got back. I had a feeling we would break the 1st hour low since they couldn't even push price back up to the mid-point, but I was unable to capitalize on the idea.

Ended the day with a +$250 gain, via a 67% win rate and a profit factor of 6.11.

For tomorrow, I'll be mindful of the 800 area, which held as support today. Below 800, I'll be expecting support around 790, 784, and then 774. I think price could come all the way down to the low 760s again (thus filling the open gap at 763.75), and still retain it's bullish structure.

ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Morning Trades)


ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Afternoon Trades)


Gap filled by 12:30 PM


ES/$TICK (3-Min)
\

ES 15-Minute

Monday 03/23/09 - S&P up 54 pts! Really?

Given the last couple of week's price action, I was cautious trading to the short side (obvious by my consistent effort to BUY last Friday), but I wasn't bullish enough to go long as often as I should have today. I scalped for +2.25 pts to the short side right off the open due to weakness in XLF at the time. I then entered a short position at 792.25 because ES broke the 791.50 area. What I failed to notice was that ES broke that level just by a TICK, and it cost me -2 pts! I should have waited for a decisive break and then entered on a retracement. Lesson learned (again). I corrected that mistake by going Long at 794 on the .618 retracement of the next up swing. I had to leave the house for a bit, so exited early for +2 points (target was 800). When I returned to the screens around noon, price had been drifting down/sideways, and was below the 50% level, and overall looked pretty weak, so I entered short at 797 but was stopped out at 798.75 (-1.75 pts) two minutes later, on what looked to be a stop-run. All the indicators were pointing down, so I re-entered short at 797.25 and covered at 794.50 for +2.75 pts. I had to attend a birthday lunch so closed down a little past 1 PM with + 3.25 pts on the day, with a profit factor of 1.76

ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Morning Trades)


ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Late Morning and Afternoon Trades)


ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Afternoon Price Action)


Open/Unfilled Gap from 763.75


ES/$TICK (3-Min)


ES 15-Minute - Price could easily retrace to the 791 area and still be in an up-trend.

Friday 03/20/09 - If, Then, Else

When I was working full-time, my trading method comprised of taking counter-trend scalps for quick wins. But now that I can spend some focused time in front of the screens, I've been working on adapting to a trend-following method, where I wait for confirmation of trend and then enter a trade on a pullback, in direction of trend. The trend is defined using the 3 minute and/or 5-minute chart, and a micro-trend can be defined on the 610-tickbar chart. I got to the screens around 9:30 AM and traded the morning fairly well, initially taking shorts, and then switching to longs when 775 area began to show signs of support. I also realized that the 780.25 level was acting as resistance (it was the mid-point of the market), and I posted a message on my Twitter page saying "I'd like to see a break of 780.25 before I enter Long again". The thought process was IF 780.25 breaks, THEN enter a Long position. What was missing from that thought was the ELSE condition, and that was my down fall and one of the reasons I gave back the +$237.50 morning gain later in the day. I recognized 780.25 as resistance, but since my thought process only had the IF condition supporting my Long bias; the idea of shorting that level elluded me. I should have either shorted that level when price couldn't break through it, or introduce another IF condition along the lines of: IF price breaks down through 775 THEN enter short! Trading really can be as simple as identifying trend, and then setting up a couple of IF/THEN/ELSE statements in your mind to react to the price action. Sorry if all the "if/then/else" talk sounds weird, but I'm a Data/Software Architect, and this makes a lot of sense to me. I'd love to hear your thoughts on this. I'll be working on incorporating the ELSE condition into my thought process starting Monday. The other reason (and probably the main reason) I gave back the morning gains was lack of discipline. I started going against the trend and entering Long positions trying to catch the bottom. I should have waited for the market to confirm the end of the down trend before entering Long. Ideally, I should have shorted the pops all the way down, and then entered Long once the market confirmed a reversal in trend. To summarize, I traded the morning fairly well, and switched to trading like an idiot later in the day. The only smart thing I did was shut down the charts when my P&L got back to $0.00.

ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Morning Trades)


ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Afternoon Trades)


ES 15-Min


Gap filled within 15 minutes


ES/$TICK (3-Min)

Thursday 03/19/09 - Century Mark

As the title hints, this is post# 100 on the Blog :)

I did not get to the screens till about 10:40 Am (central). The first two trades in the morning were definitely not proper setups, and that's why I scratched the first one and took a stop hit of -2 points on the second one. Even the third trade was a bit early but I took it because we had decent support below at 777 . It was a fairly choppy day with jerky price movements. I was working on the IT project while trading today, so I wasn't focused missed several setups simply because I wasn't watching the market around those times. I didn't want to chase the setup and get in at a poor price, so just stayed out trades all afternoon (+1 for discipline). Ended the day at +$200, with a 50% win rate. I'm not too concerned about the win rate, but the statistic I do care about is the Avg Winner vs. Avg Loser (Profit Factor) to make sure my Risk:Reward is in balance, and I'm glad to say the Avg Winner was 2.73 times the Avg Loser (goal is to keep the profit factor above 2.00; higher the better).

ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Morning Trades)


Going forward, today's down move could simply have been a corrective retracement. I'm trying to trade from a neutral position, and the way I see it, today's price action remained above the .618 retracement from prior swing low to swing high on the 15-minute chart. The low of day was at 777.25; a tick above the 777 level. If we break 777, I'd be looking for the 770-773.50 area to hold. Below that we have 761.75 and mid 750s. I'm not too concerned with the bigger picture but I think it helps to know significant price levels.

ES 15-Minute Chart - OBV MA still positive indicating a lack of systemic selling in the markets.


Gap filled within first 30 minutes


ES/$TICK (3-Min) The $TICK MAs just hovering around zero-line (highlighted in blue) are indicative of the lack of direction (chop) in the markets.

Wed. 03/18/09 - Trend Trading

I decided to sleep in today and got to the screens in the afternoon.

Trying to follow the rules I set out yesterday.

12:18 PM - Long at 771.75 (Uptrend on 3-min time-frame, bought the .618 retracement)
12:44 PM - Exit at 776.75 (1 tick below yesterday's high of 777) for +5 points

1:11 PM - Normally, I would have shorted the double-top in the 777 area, and looks like that would have worked too, but sticking with yesterday's goals, I'm staying out of shorts until the up-trend is clearly broken or price becomes way over extended

2:24 PM - Just hit it long at 781 (market mid-point + 200 EMA on 1-min chart + positive divergence on volume oscillator, support below so I can probably bail for break-even if it doesn't work)
2:25 PM - Exit at 783 for quick +2 points (should have held for a bit longer but there was a lot of momentum to the down-side. Initial target was 785; the level where price broke out to higher highs earlier)

I made more money today in 2 trades than I did with15+ trades yesterday (efficiency). This is EXACTLY what the goals from yesterday were shooting for. Now lets see if I'm able to keep this up.

ES 610-Tickbar (Morning Trade)


ES 610-Tickbar (Afternoon Trade)


Gap filled by 12:45 PM


ES/$TICK (3-Min) - Remained above zero line most of the day

Tuesday 03/17/09 - Back to Basics

Even though today was an up day for me (+$325 on ES and +$25 on NQ), the trading was actually pretty bad. Way too many counter-trend trades. I think the small 6-tick stops give me the false illusion that I'm taking "low-risk" trades, when in fact, there's a high probability of the stop-loss being hit, and the only reason the stop-loss doesn't get hit is because I'm bailing on the trade for +3-4 ticks, which doesn't even meet my risk/reward requirement. I think I developed this "problem" when I was working full-time and figured scalping was the only way to extract some quick profits, but now that I can focus on the market full-time, I need to change things around and get back to basics: trade in direction of trend, and stick with an absolute minimum of 1:2 risk:reward ratio. Trading the NQ was also a mistake since I ended up missing setups on ES, which produces bigger gains (and losses) quickly. As far as the stats go, my win rate today was 58% with the winners being slightly larger than the losers. Unacceptable. Here's the plan going forward:

1. Identify trend on 3 min and/or 5 min charts.
2. Trade only in direction of trend. This is going to be tough since I have a natural tendency to trade counter-trend. This would work out if I had a big account and a seat on the CME, but I don't have either of those, so I need to shoot for bigger profits and be more efficient with my trades (less trades, for larger gains). 2 points will be my max stop-loss. Bigger gains shouldn't mean sloppy entries.
3. Shoot for a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio. Preferrably 1:3

I may not trade rest of the week or trade VERY lightly since I need to finish my final project for class by this Friday, as well as the IT project for my client. But I'll still continue to make a new post every evening with the regular charts and will be updating the Gap Tracker post as well.

On to the charts...

ES 610-tickbar (Morning Trades)


ES 610-tickbar (Afternoon Trades)


I really didn't think ES would take out yesterday's high of day, but I guess this is what happens when too many people (in this case, shorts) are caught on the wrong side and have to liquidate their positions.

TradeStation Performance Summary


Gap filled at Open


ES/$TICK (3-Min)

Monday 03/16/09 - Real-time Journal

7:53 Am - Resistance was expected in the 765 area, and that proved to be the case in over-night trading. Shorted 763 in pre-market earlier this morning, but was stopped out at break-even. It's my first day watching the S&P pre-market movement, so I'm not in-sync with the timing of entries/exits. From the looks of it, one could extract 3-5 points in pre-market, trading off the faster tickbar charts (233-tickbar). Volume indicators seem to work fine even in the thinly traded over-night session. I wanted to re-enter short at 763 but I'm thinking it's probably best that I just watch from the side-lines today.

7:59 AM - ES now at 761.25 sitting on continuous volume trend. Looks like it could definitely head lower, but a bounce is typical at the continuous volume trend, so I'd prefer to wait for a pop to 763-764 and see if I can enter short. If it breaks 761, next level is 757 (market mid-point).

8:02 AM - Getting that bounce as expected; ES trading at 762.50. A nice gap-fill trade could setup here shortly. As long as I stick with the 6-tick stops, can't do too much damage.

8:05 AM - ES hit 763 forming a bullish engulfing on the 610-tick chart. Staying out of shorts for now. Also looks like we're forming a H&S setup on the 610-tick.



8:12 AM - Triangle on the 233-tick chart. Technically I should short a break of 761, or buy a break of 763 but with a 70% chance of a gap-fill, I don't think I could buy up in this area.

8:17 AM - This is looking weak. Short at 762.50. 3 tick stop-loss.

8:19 AM - ES trading at 761.50. Moving stop to break-even. Initial target 759.50



8:22 AM - ES at 761 now. Leaving stop at break-even. Have a little more confidence in this trade now but 761 has to break soon...it just broke, and hit 760.50. Hoping I don't get stop-gunned here at the open.

8:27 AM - I'm tempted to cover here at 760.50 and just lock in the 2 points. DISCIPLINE! Must hold out a little longer...

8:28 AM - Screw it, moving stop to 761.50 to lock in +1 pt. I'll probably get stopped-out and then ES will drop 10 points without me :-/

8:29 AM - Yep...got stopped out for +1

8:32 AM - $TICK is at +630 pointing to higher price levels, but price is trading down towards gap-fill. I haven't watched the open in years, so thi price action is new to me. Feel like shorting this, but will stay out and wait for opening range to setup.

8:33 AM - ES at 759...should've held that short! Can't let that frustrate me though. Tightening stops to lock in gains is part of my trade management plan.

8:36 AM - Energy sector is down, but financials are up.

8:40 AM - The open is a little too fast for me. I'm thinking this is where liquidity providers like Don Miller are raking it in covering for 2-3 ticks on larger size. This sporadic price movement probably works to their favor.

8:45 AM - Scalped it short for a tick or so (I think). TradeStation doesn't show me my trade entry point on the DOM; maybe I need to re-configure it or something.

8:51 AM - $TICK has finally dipped to negative territory. Would love a bounce on price here to enter short at 761.50. Need to get that 3rd screen up and running today; having an eye on the sectors would definitely help.

8:54 AM - Short 760.50; stopped out at -1 pt before I could even finish typing this sentence :D
8:55 AM - ES at 762.75 now. Just goes to show, if you're gonna use a stop, might as well use a tight one and keep the losses small. You can always re-enter at better price levels. XLE and XLF are both re-bounding to the up-side so probablt best to stay out of shorts for now. But NQ is way down, and I'm thinking the other indices should follow! Confusion!

8:59 AM - I'm sure it's due to a lack of skill on my part, but trading the open looks like a crap shoot. Last week I wasn't around for the open and was able to make modest gains; at this point, I'm down $25 because market can't make up its mind on where it wants to go. Maybe sitting out the 1st hour is not such a bad idea.

9:04 AM - Sectors keep climbing up. Staying out of shorts for now.

9:06 - What the hell is up with these moves? I'm short at 759.75

9:09 AM - Out at 760.00 for -1 tick. Weird price action here with the NQ down and ES and Dow holding their own. I'm thinking some tech company came out with shit earnings?

9:12 AM - Short at 59.75 again
9:13 AM - Out for +3 ticks. Ofcourse now that I'm out, price drops :D

9:16 AM - Not gonna bother trading the first 30 minutes tomorrow. But I think there may be some opportunity in trading pre-market. I don't know...need more screen time.

9:20 AM - Trying a Long here at 58.25. $TICK went positive. XLE turned up.
9:24 AM - Out at 59.50. Early exit as always. 760.50 = mid-point. Expecting resistance there. Might short that area.

9:28 AM - Price hit a high of 760.50 on that last swing up; hit resistance and is now at 757.75. Should've entered short there.



9:31 AM - Matt just went Long at 760.50. Boy's got balls...I'm not touching this thing! My short bias won't let me.
9:33 AM - ES @ 762.50. Insane up move and awesome timing by Matt on that Long trade.
9:35 AM - Matt just exited at 764.25...nicely done! 764 = first hour high. Good area to cover profits.

9:37 AM - Energy sector is rallying pushing this market higher! Staying out of shorts at the moment but I also can't get myself to buy up here.

9:39 AM - Gap fill to down-side is still a possibility. Several times in the past, price has hit 1st hour high, and then reversed to fill the gap. But this bullish engulfing on the 5-min chart is keeping me out of shorts. I'd like to see price break the mid-point at 761.25; head lower, then come back up the mid-point, at which point I would hit it short and hold for gap fill.

9:43 AM - I believe 9:40-9:45 AM is a time of day when price typically reverses. Looks like that's what it's doing right now. Price action has certainly calmed down now. Easier to manage risk on slower moves since market allows you to bail for a tiny loss and get back in, unlike the price action during the open.

9:47 AM - Looks like a bull-flag on the 1 min chart here.

9:56 AM - Have an limit sell order in at 763.00. Price hit 762.75 on that prior swing up and missed me by a tick. But I don't see the point in chasing price here. Nice $TICK divergence setup is forming on the 1-min chart but I'd like to short a pop to take full advantage of the divergence.

10:00 AM - My execution has been pretty terrible this morning.

10:21 AM - Churned some more by taking some short scalps that exited for par. Sitting at -$25 on the day.

10:32 AM - Short 766.50; looking for a reversion to mean. $TICK is still positive but not making any new highs as prior swing up. Using a 6-tick stop at 768 (High of Day). 764.25 = Upper value area. Looking for price to retrace down to that level.

10:36 AM - Doesn't look like this thing is out of steam just yet. Might bail for a small loss here.
10:38 AM - Out for -1 tick loss. Sitting on -$75.00 on the day.

10:39 AM - Re-short at 766.50 yet again. What can I say, it really looked like it was about to drop!

10:40 AM - Stop to 767.50
10:44 AM - Stop to break-even (766.50)
10:45 AM - Out at 765 for +1.5 pts. Back to $0.00 on the day. Gonna step away for a break here. Lets hope my performance in the afternoon session is better.



10:53 AM - Scalped it short for +3 ticks. Stepping away now.


11:34 AM - Just got back to my PC. Short at 767.25. Double-top with $TICK Divergence.


11:37 AM - Well, that didn't work out. Stopped out for -6 ticks. -$25.00 on the day so far.
11:39 AM - Re-short at 769 with 1 pt stop. Initial target is 766 on this one (upper value area & resettable volume trend)
11:50 AM - Was stopped.

11:51 AM - Re-entering short. This isn't being stubborn; the chatrts look like this thing is about to DROP. I accidentally shorted 2 contracts so will be covering 1 fast to get back to 1 contract.

11:57 AM - Stopped out on that one. P/L at -$262.50. Might be best to call it a day.

11:58 AM - Giving it one last shot. If this doesn't work, I'm done for the day. Short at 770.75 with a 5 tick stop.

12:09 PM - Exited at 668.50 for +2.25 pts. -$150 on the day now.

12:14 PM - Short again at 669
12:15 PM - Exit for +2 tick.

12:26 PM - Tried getting short at 770; no fill. Tried again at 769.25; no fill! Finally, ended up chasing the trade and hit it short at 768! Bad call...should've been patient!
12:30 PM - Out for -2 ticks.

12:32 PM - Re-short 768.50.
12:36 PM - My short bias is killing me today. Stopped out for -1 pt. -$200 on the day now + commissions :(

12:45 PM - Shorted 770. Neither volume, nor $TICK supporting this up-move.
12:47 PM - Stopped out. Today is not my day.

12:49 PM - Double-top on Price + $TICK divergence. This could very well be my last trade of the day but I'm yet again short at 770.75

12:52 PM - Looking at the DOM; barely anyone's buying the 770+ area. I'm surprised this market is holding.

12:55 PM - Stop to 770
12:56 PM - Out at 767.75 for +3 pts

1:08 PM - Tried to short a bounce...but the bounce never came and now ES is tanking without me. I am starving though, so stepping away to get some food now. Maybe I'll operate better after I eat something.

1:35 PM - Just got back. Need to adjust my lunch schedule to Eastern time :D
1:37 PM - Just scalped it short for +1 pt. -$75.00 on the day now.

1:53 PM - Scalped it short once more. -$50.00 now.

2:12 PM - Scalped it Long and am now at $0.00 on the day.

So I screwed up pretty bad today. I'll post the Trade Station trade chart and performance summary below. My win rate today was 38.89% and the only positive point I can take from today it is that with my tight risk management, I can have a poor hit rate and still come out flat on the day ($-70 or so if you count commissions). I had 6 losing sequences in a row, which is quite rare but it happens. I'm just glad I didn't do too much damage. First full day of trading definitely did not go as planned, but it did provide me with some insights. My short bias got in the way and I'm going to actively work on resolving that issue. I also relied too heavily on the gap-fill play (70%+ probability of same-day gap fill). The gap did eventually fill but my belief that the gap would fill caused a lot of losing trades early on, and because of those losers, I wasn't mentally where I should have been in the afternoon, and exited some trades too quickly. I also don't know if it's worth trading the first 30 minutes (for me due to my skill level). This week is going to prove to be very educational :-)

Trade Station Performance Summary


ES 610-Tickbar Chart (Morning Trades)


ES 610-Tickbar Chart (Afternoon Trades)


Gap Filled by 2:30 PM


ES/$TICK Chart (3-Min)