Consider this an early Weekend edition. There are 3 "times-of-day" I monitor. One is obviously the open to 12:00. The second is lunchtime; typically 12:00 to 1:00 or so, maybe 1:15, and then the "3:00 session" which can result in a good move. The 3:00 session also includes 3:30.
There's always the possibility of a move starting in this time span as the bond market closes. CNBC blamed todays move on short covering. I don't care. I just look for the possibility of a move. If you look at yesterdays chart we had an almost identical setup as well, right at the same time. Today was also options expiration day. A lot of people will offer general advice such as "OPEX day will be a dud, it won't go anywhere", or "never touch a move after 3:00 on OPEX day". As any 16 year would say..."Whatever". Over the last couple years...years of watching charts about every day...I have come up with a few "Truths". Now, as a disclaimer, I'm a scalper mostly, so what I see on a chart may be of no interest to someone trading a longer TF (timeframe). But here's the "Truth" that applies here for me at least:
"EVERYDAY HAS OPPORTUNITIES! Don't assume you know what the day will be like coming into it. The economic news, world events, trading calendar, opinions of "experts" -- none of it matters. Good setups happen on FOMC day, days before a holiday, and others. NEVER go into a day with the piss-poor attitude that "nothing will happen". Just read the trend / PA as if you have no idea what the news was, or what day it is."
(Hopefully my langauge doesn't offend some. It is meant to be a motivator for me) The chart shows 1 minute bars, with an upper TL (trendline) that was broken right near the end. By the way, I stalked this all through a slow, boring afternoon, and then missed it. Why? I was a "dick for 3 ticks". I wanted a pullback to the 9477 triple top. And after I missed that I wanted a pullback to 9493 (a S/R level not drawn on this chart) that never materialized. That's the way it
goes sometimes.
Well, I saw yesterday chart the same with non-expiration day. I agree with you. Scalper only need quick price action and there's too much unreasonable excuse not trading on expiration day.
ReplyDeleteI think the key is being exposed every single day at the market, including expiration day. That's how we gain knowledge from each moment.
I agree 100% with you De'Trader. As soon as we decide to take a day off because somebody convinced us it will be a dud day....we see great setups (after-the fact) that fit our plan perfectly. The only way to learn is to be there observing all sorts of price action...even "dead" times. Afterall, contraction (dead times) leads to expansion, which leads to contraction which leads to expansion, etc., etc. I see it over and over....everyday has opportunities.
ReplyDeleteNice post, Chuck. Good trading to you.
ReplyDeleteThanks Me vs. Wall Street... I followed E-Mini's link to your blog and noticed the reading list from Aug. 18. The "10 Rules" from the Kirk Report caught my eye (I like seeing what rules others have), and it was a good read. Especially #4 "Beat them with patience". Oh so important. And #8 "Find peace in the market". Achieving that one is like breaking through the invisible wall in a marathon run. I hope others check out the list.
ReplyDeleteOn Ziad's recommendation, I read Bob Rotella's book: Golf Is Not A Game of Perfect. Excellent read! If you liked his 10 rules, you should def. pick up a copy :)
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