As @Jediphone pointed out on StockTwits, 7 of the last 8 Monday's have been bullish with an average gain of 1.28% (source: Phil's Stock World). In doing my own research, I found that the Monday after OpEx Friday was bullish in October, and the Monday of Thanksgiving week in 2008 was bullish as well. It's something to keep in mind, but of course, trades should be initiated based off what the market tells you in real-time. Existing Home Sales data out at 9:00 am (cst) tomorrow morning.
Bullish Scenario
1089 (VPOC from Friday) is near-term support. On the up side, we have near-term resistance at 1095.25. I'm bullish above 1095.25. After that, we have range extension targets in the 1098.25-1099.25 area, which could act as short-term resistance. If price gets to that area, I would anticipate a test of 1100, but that's a good area to scale out of Longs, and re-load at better prices. Above 1100, 1102.50 is a level that could offer stronger resistance and provide a rotation back to the 1099-1100 area. Above 1102.50, 1106 is strong resistance, and we have an Open Gap at 1108.50. We're currently building value in the 1094 area.
Bearish Scenario
1089 is the Volume Point of Control from Friday, and price would need to get below that level for sellers to begin taking control. 1085.25 is the next level of support, and the line in the sand for me between bullish/bearish bias. Below 1085.25, my bias shifts to bearish and shorting bounces becomes the higher probability play, IMHO. If we get below 1085.25, we'll likely test 1082.50, and quite possibly even break below it to get to that 1076-1079 area. I would expect the sell off to really accelerate if we break below 1076. 1064 has been the final bearish target for several days now.
ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
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