Thursday, November 18, 2010
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Thoughts on Next Week
It's tough to nail a short-term Top in an environment where the Fed is pumping so much capital into the markets (QE2), but we're beginning to see some exhaustion in Nasdaq (NQ), which could lead to a breather in ES as well. NQ has shot up without establishing any solid support, so a pullback (whenever it comes) will probably be swift. Above here, Key Resistance levels in NQ are 2193.50 and 2206.50. ES has been lagging NQ, and could still move higher but the short-term upside from here looks limited (10-20 points). Bigger picture, Buyers are in Control and a pullback to the low 1200s would present a good buying opportunity. The market shouldn't revisit the 1179-1180 Area if the up-trend is to remain intact. 1185-1192 is strong support and longer time-frame investors are likely to load up on the Long side *if* ES pulls back to that Area. As of now, a pullback to 1185-1192 seems unlikely. We have very few economic reports in the coming week, and I anticipate the market to establish another trading range (balance area). From a Trade Location perspective, as price moves higher from here, the Risk/Reward begins shifting in the favor of Sellers and I will be looking for Shorting opportunities at Resistance. That being said, the safe strategy is to play the upside rotations at Support. Thanks to QE2, there's a constant Bid in this market, which means there's an even higher probability of rotation at the Support Zones.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Know Your Trade
There are so many trading axioms out there such as "the trend is your friend", "don't pick tops and bottoms", "never catch a falling knife", "never short a dull market", "never add to a losing position", and the list goes on. Now, there's nothing wrong with these rules but in my experience, almost all of them can be broken in certain market conditions. The last rule on Dennis Gartman's 22 Rules of Trading states: "All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when... and how infrequently this rule may be invoked!", and that couldn't be more true.
So, you can break the rules but only if you know that you're breaking the rules, which brings us to the point of this post: Know Your Trade! Know exactly what type of trade you're in. There's nothing wrong with "catching a falling knife" as long as you know you're catching a falling knife and then manage risk accordingly, i.e. you don't continue to add to the losing trade. Same goes for picking tops and bottoms -- nothing wrong with it, as long as you know you're attempting to pick a top or bottom. Once you know and acknowledge the type of trade you're taking, you can then proceed to manage that trade accordingly. For example, how I manage a Trend Trade differs from how I manage a Counter-Trend trade. My risk management is tighter on counter-trend trades because my reason for getting in the trade may be exhaustion at a Resistance Area, and if we get continuation beyond the high of the move, then obviously we haven't reached an exhaustion point yet and I should take a small loss and re-enter at a more favorable price. If I'm taking a trade in direction of Trend within the Context of a Trend Day, I may actually add to the "losing" position if price moves against me by a few ticks as long as everything else still supports my trade idea and my original stop-loss level isn't threatened.
In conclusion, just be honest with yourself. Know what type of trade you're in, and then have a plan for managing each type of trade. If you can't identify the type of trade you're about to take, it's probably a good idea to skip that trade because you're obviously confused on the trade idea from the get-go, and won't have the conviction to see the trade through. I hope you find this helpful, and as always, I welcome your insights on this topic.
So, you can break the rules but only if you know that you're breaking the rules, which brings us to the point of this post: Know Your Trade! Know exactly what type of trade you're in. There's nothing wrong with "catching a falling knife" as long as you know you're catching a falling knife and then manage risk accordingly, i.e. you don't continue to add to the losing trade. Same goes for picking tops and bottoms -- nothing wrong with it, as long as you know you're attempting to pick a top or bottom. Once you know and acknowledge the type of trade you're taking, you can then proceed to manage that trade accordingly. For example, how I manage a Trend Trade differs from how I manage a Counter-Trend trade. My risk management is tighter on counter-trend trades because my reason for getting in the trade may be exhaustion at a Resistance Area, and if we get continuation beyond the high of the move, then obviously we haven't reached an exhaustion point yet and I should take a small loss and re-enter at a more favorable price. If I'm taking a trade in direction of Trend within the Context of a Trend Day, I may actually add to the "losing" position if price moves against me by a few ticks as long as everything else still supports my trade idea and my original stop-loss level isn't threatened.
In conclusion, just be honest with yourself. Know what type of trade you're in, and then have a plan for managing each type of trade. If you can't identify the type of trade you're about to take, it's probably a good idea to skip that trade because you're obviously confused on the trade idea from the get-go, and won't have the conviction to see the trade through. I hope you find this helpful, and as always, I welcome your insights on this topic.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
My Thoughts on VPOC Shifts
VPOC stands for Volume Point of Control and is the price level with the heaviest volume for the day. This is the price level with heavy Acceptance by both, Buyers and Sellers. The level signifies Agreement by both parties on Value. Now, if the Buyers and Sellers agree that a certain price is Fair, then the market could remain in balance trading around the VPOC until additional information (a catalyst) changes the opinion on Value or it could head in the opposite direction and test a previous area of Rejection (disagreement). VPOCs serve as great Targets.
Given the above definition, what do you think a shift in the VPOC represents and how should you trade it? For starters, a shift in the VPOC represents a shift in the opinion on Value. But how do you trade it? It depends on the Context. To keep it simple we'll just say Context is either a Trend Day or a Non-Trend Day. Majority of the days are Non-Trend Days so we'll cover that first.
Non-Trend Day Context
For our first example, lets assume we're trading within the Context of a Non-Trend Day and the VPOC shifts Up. Suppose you're Long from 1050 and the VPOC shifts up from 1045 to 1055. The Shift Up tells us that the opinion on Value has changed, but more importantly, it tells us that Buyers and Sellers AGREE on Fair Value at 1055. If they agree on Fair Value, and there's no additional catalyst in the market to change that opinion, then it makes sense to exit or scale out of your Long position because price could just rotate around the VPOC now until new information (a catalyst) is introduced in the market and changes the opinion on Fair Value. Price may also reverse here and test a previous area of rejection (Low Volume Node). The bottom line is, odds of continuation up are now lower and you need to ask yourself whether you would Initiate a new Long position at 1055. If the answer is No, then why shouldn't you scale out or even exit your Long position here?
Trend Day Context
The concept of Value is slightly less critical on a Trend Day because the market is searching for Value. This is where looking at a Composite Volume Profile chart can be really helpful because price will typically head towards a previous Area of Acceptance or Rejection, but on a larger time-frame. On a Trend Day, Price will make a directional move away from Value and Value will catch up to Price. Value is catching up to Price when you see the ES consolidate in a range for a couple of hours after an initiative move. You will save yourself so much money if you're able to identify Trend Days early in the morning but that's a whole separate topic/post. Even on Trend Days, lightening up your position on a VPOC Shift is not a bad idea but just know that the pullbacks will probably be bought and the VPOC could shift again (double-distribution trend days anyone?).
I hope this post clarifies and answers some questions on VPOC Shifts. It's a simple and brief post, and I certainly don't expect it to answer all the questions. This is just my own logical way of interpreting VPOC Shifts. The learning never ends, and I'm open to your insights and welcome your comments on this topic.
Given the above definition, what do you think a shift in the VPOC represents and how should you trade it? For starters, a shift in the VPOC represents a shift in the opinion on Value. But how do you trade it? It depends on the Context. To keep it simple we'll just say Context is either a Trend Day or a Non-Trend Day. Majority of the days are Non-Trend Days so we'll cover that first.
Non-Trend Day Context
For our first example, lets assume we're trading within the Context of a Non-Trend Day and the VPOC shifts Up. Suppose you're Long from 1050 and the VPOC shifts up from 1045 to 1055. The Shift Up tells us that the opinion on Value has changed, but more importantly, it tells us that Buyers and Sellers AGREE on Fair Value at 1055. If they agree on Fair Value, and there's no additional catalyst in the market to change that opinion, then it makes sense to exit or scale out of your Long position because price could just rotate around the VPOC now until new information (a catalyst) is introduced in the market and changes the opinion on Fair Value. Price may also reverse here and test a previous area of rejection (Low Volume Node). The bottom line is, odds of continuation up are now lower and you need to ask yourself whether you would Initiate a new Long position at 1055. If the answer is No, then why shouldn't you scale out or even exit your Long position here?
Trend Day Context
The concept of Value is slightly less critical on a Trend Day because the market is searching for Value. This is where looking at a Composite Volume Profile chart can be really helpful because price will typically head towards a previous Area of Acceptance or Rejection, but on a larger time-frame. On a Trend Day, Price will make a directional move away from Value and Value will catch up to Price. Value is catching up to Price when you see the ES consolidate in a range for a couple of hours after an initiative move. You will save yourself so much money if you're able to identify Trend Days early in the morning but that's a whole separate topic/post. Even on Trend Days, lightening up your position on a VPOC Shift is not a bad idea but just know that the pullbacks will probably be bought and the VPOC could shift again (double-distribution trend days anyone?).
I hope this post clarifies and answers some questions on VPOC Shifts. It's a simple and brief post, and I certainly don't expect it to answer all the questions. This is just my own logical way of interpreting VPOC Shifts. The learning never ends, and I'm open to your insights and welcome your comments on this topic.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Introducing, E-Mini Player Premium
Going forward, the nightly Key Support/Resistance Areas as well as the Daily Market Review will be posted over at www.EminiPlayer.net.
This public blog will remain in-place, and will continue but the technical analysis will be limited to subscribers at EminiPlayer.net. If you've found my analysis and insights to be helpful to your trading, please head over to www.EminiPlayer.net and sign up through the Subscribe link to gain instant access.
Thanks for your support!
This public blog will remain in-place, and will continue but the technical analysis will be limited to subscribers at EminiPlayer.net. If you've found my analysis and insights to be helpful to your trading, please head over to www.EminiPlayer.net and sign up through the Subscribe link to gain instant access.
Thanks for your support!
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Thursday 04/01/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Some nice action in the S&Ps today. As I mentioned in yesterday's review, we've observed Responsive Buying and Responsive Selling all week, and today was much of the same. Responsive Sellers quickly rejected higher prices, and once price moved below 1167, Responsive Buyers quickly pushed price back up. 1167-1169 was the Area of heavy acceptance this week. This up move is losing momentum though. The previous week's high was 1176.50, and the high for this week so far is only one handle higher at 1177.50. If price gets below 1158, and longs begin liquidating, we could easily get a pullback to the 1139-1141 area.
Btw, I've received questions regarding the arrows on the 5-Minute charts I post in the daily reviews. To clarify, the arrows are NOT plotted automatically. I manually place those arrows on the charts where I see good setups (a lot of times within the Key Areas posted the night before). Some of the arrows are actual trades that I took (e.g. I shorted 1177 and went long at 1167 today). But not all of them are my trades. I don't plot all my trades on the 5-minute chart; just the setups. Hope that clears things up.
The markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday, so enjoy the day off and have a good weekend!
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Some nice action in the S&Ps today. As I mentioned in yesterday's review, we've observed Responsive Buying and Responsive Selling all week, and today was much of the same. Responsive Sellers quickly rejected higher prices, and once price moved below 1167, Responsive Buyers quickly pushed price back up. 1167-1169 was the Area of heavy acceptance this week. This up move is losing momentum though. The previous week's high was 1176.50, and the high for this week so far is only one handle higher at 1177.50. If price gets below 1158, and longs begin liquidating, we could easily get a pullback to the 1139-1141 area.
Btw, I've received questions regarding the arrows on the 5-Minute charts I post in the daily reviews. To clarify, the arrows are NOT plotted automatically. I manually place those arrows on the charts where I see good setups (a lot of times within the Key Areas posted the night before). Some of the arrows are actual trades that I took (e.g. I shorted 1177 and went long at 1167 today). But not all of them are my trades. I don't plot all my trades on the 5-minute chart; just the setups. Hope that clears things up.
The markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday, so enjoy the day off and have a good weekend!
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Thursday 04/01/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The current range for the WEEK is 12.50 points (1161.25-1173.75)! We've built acceptance between 1167.75 and 1169.75, and every move above and below that area has been met with Responsive Buying and Responsive Selling. We need a catalyst to drive this market outside of this range, at which point, I would anticipate some Initiative Activity. Tomorrow could be a trend day when price finally pushes to 1150 or 1183...or we could just get more of the same (chop). When everyone gets complacent (comfortable) within the current range, we'll probably get a surprise move that will force one party (either buyers or sellers) to liquidate their positions. As long as we hold above 1163, my bias remains (cautiously) to the upside. Trade well!
Econ Data
Motor Vehicle Sales, Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Construction Spending and ISM Mfg Index at 9:00 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
The current range for the WEEK is 12.50 points (1161.25-1173.75)! We've built acceptance between 1167.75 and 1169.75, and every move above and below that area has been met with Responsive Buying and Responsive Selling. We need a catalyst to drive this market outside of this range, at which point, I would anticipate some Initiative Activity. Tomorrow could be a trend day when price finally pushes to 1150 or 1183...or we could just get more of the same (chop). When everyone gets complacent (comfortable) within the current range, we'll probably get a surprise move that will force one party (either buyers or sellers) to liquidate their positions. As long as we hold above 1163, my bias remains (cautiously) to the upside. Trade well!
Econ Data
Motor Vehicle Sales, Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Construction Spending and ISM Mfg Index at 9:00 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Wed. 03/31/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We got a solid bounce at Initial Support, but no follow-through above 1170. NYSE TICK Divergences provided some nice entries on both sides. At this point, the market is pretty much balanced between 1160 and 1170, and we need a catalyst to drive price out of this range.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
We got a solid bounce at Initial Support, but no follow-through above 1170. NYSE TICK Divergences provided some nice entries on both sides. At this point, the market is pretty much balanced between 1160 and 1170, and we need a catalyst to drive price out of this range.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Wed. 03/31/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I'm going to continue using 1163.25 as my Bull/Bear Line in Sand, which means the current near-term bias is Bullish. Tomorrow is also the last day of the month, and the market has a tendency to be bullish in the afternoon session. It's a scenario I'm prepared for, so I will try to get more out any Long positions in the afternoon if I see Buy setups around that time. The morning could be choppy or even bearish. Be prepared, go in with a plan, and be mindful of trade location. Initiate trades where you feel comfortable and don't get caught up in the chop. Keep your bias in check. Everyone wants this market to drop, and it could drop tomorrow, or it could test the low 1180s. Trade well!
Econ Data
ADP Employment Report at 7:15 AM (CT), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (CT), Factory Orders at 9:00 AM (CT), and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
I'm going to continue using 1163.25 as my Bull/Bear Line in Sand, which means the current near-term bias is Bullish. Tomorrow is also the last day of the month, and the market has a tendency to be bullish in the afternoon session. It's a scenario I'm prepared for, so I will try to get more out any Long positions in the afternoon if I see Buy setups around that time. The morning could be choppy or even bearish. Be prepared, go in with a plan, and be mindful of trade location. Initiate trades where you feel comfortable and don't get caught up in the chop. Keep your bias in check. Everyone wants this market to drop, and it could drop tomorrow, or it could test the low 1180s. Trade well!
Econ Data
ADP Employment Report at 7:15 AM (CT), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (CT), Factory Orders at 9:00 AM (CT), and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Tuesday 03/30/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
As anticipated, we got an outside day today where the market looked for Buyers below and Sellers above yesterday's balance area of 1167.75-1169. The low volatility may also be due to the holiday week. Responsive Sellers kept price below 1175 and Responsive Buyers pushed price back into Value, and we closed at 1169.25. My bias remains Bullish above 1163.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
As anticipated, we got an outside day today where the market looked for Buyers below and Sellers above yesterday's balance area of 1167.75-1169. The low volatility may also be due to the holiday week. Responsive Sellers kept price below 1175 and Responsive Buyers pushed price back into Value, and we closed at 1169.25. My bias remains Bullish above 1163.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Monday, March 29, 2010
Tuesday 03/30/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
After Monday's range-bound price action where the market was in balance between 1167.75 and 1169, I'm anticipating an outside day where price may test 1175-1176.50 on the upside and 1160.75-1163.75 on the downside. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1163.25; bullish if price is trading above it, and bearish if price is trading below that level. I anticipate the buying to get shut off by 1181.50 and the Selling to get shut off by 1153.50.
Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), S&P Case-Shiller HPI at 8:00 AM (CT), Consumer Confidence at 9:00 AM (CT), and State Street Investor Confidence Index at 9:00 AM (CT)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
After Monday's range-bound price action where the market was in balance between 1167.75 and 1169, I'm anticipating an outside day where price may test 1175-1176.50 on the upside and 1160.75-1163.75 on the downside. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1163.25; bullish if price is trading above it, and bearish if price is trading below that level. I anticipate the buying to get shut off by 1181.50 and the Selling to get shut off by 1153.50.
Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), S&P Case-Shiller HPI at 8:00 AM (CT), Consumer Confidence at 9:00 AM (CT), and State Street Investor Confidence Index at 9:00 AM (CT)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Monday 03/29/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We had a 5.75 point day session range on anemic volume. Thankfully, days like today only come around once in a while and are typically followed by range expansion, so be prepared for a better trading day tomorrow.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
We had a 5.75 point day session range on anemic volume. Thankfully, days like today only come around once in a while and are typically followed by range expansion, so be prepared for a better trading day tomorrow.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Monday 03/29/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Last week, we observed strong Responsive Buying and each dip was bought up quickly, so the bias going into Monday is Bullish as long as price remains above Friday's Low (1156.50). On the upside, I would anticipate the Buying to shut off in the 1181-1183 area. The markets have been on a tear, and we haven't had any significant pullback. On the downside, 1139-1141 is a heavy area of Support and I anticipate Strong Buying to take place there if we get down to that area this week. It's also the end of the month, and Bulls sitting on large gains will probably want to close out March on a positive note! Keep in mind that on the larger time-frames, Bears are the ones who are hurting in this market. Trade well!
Econ Data
Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (CT)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Last week, we observed strong Responsive Buying and each dip was bought up quickly, so the bias going into Monday is Bullish as long as price remains above Friday's Low (1156.50). On the upside, I would anticipate the Buying to shut off in the 1181-1183 area. The markets have been on a tear, and we haven't had any significant pullback. On the downside, 1139-1141 is a heavy area of Support and I anticipate Strong Buying to take place there if we get down to that area this week. It's also the end of the month, and Bulls sitting on large gains will probably want to close out March on a positive note! Keep in mind that on the larger time-frames, Bears are the ones who are hurting in this market. Trade well!
Econ Data
Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (CT)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Friday 03/26/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I was anticipating a test of 1170, and we almost got there (1169.75 was High of Day). The NYSE TICK was flashing negative divergences well in advance of the drop. The Key Levels provided great trade location on both, Longs and Shorts. 1157.50 was my Bull/Bear Line in Sand, and we bounced off 1156.50; a tick ahead of previous week's Close.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
I was anticipating a test of 1170, and we almost got there (1169.75 was High of Day). The NYSE TICK was flashing negative divergences well in advance of the drop. The Key Levels provided great trade location on both, Longs and Shorts. 1157.50 was my Bull/Bear Line in Sand, and we bounced off 1156.50; a tick ahead of previous week's Close.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Friday 03/26/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Intermediate Tops aren't typically put in place with single day sell-offs, and I'm anticipating a test of the 1170-1175 area. That doesn't mean we won't get rotations (pullbacks) along the way in the Resistance Areas, but one day of selling is no reason to go all-out bearish on the market. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is still 1157.50; a break of that level could result in Long Liquidation and the Bears are antsy and prepared to pounce on this market, so we could move down to the 1145 or even 1139-1140 area. On the bright side, it's nice to see some volatility back in the market! Keep an eye on the XLE (Energy ETF); it could give provide a heads-up on short-term market direction. Final note: Anything can happen at anytime! Be prepared and trade well!
Econ Data
GDP at 7:30 AM (CT), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Intermediate Tops aren't typically put in place with single day sell-offs, and I'm anticipating a test of the 1170-1175 area. That doesn't mean we won't get rotations (pullbacks) along the way in the Resistance Areas, but one day of selling is no reason to go all-out bearish on the market. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is still 1157.50; a break of that level could result in Long Liquidation and the Bears are antsy and prepared to pounce on this market, so we could move down to the 1145 or even 1139-1140 area. On the bright side, it's nice to see some volatility back in the market! Keep an eye on the XLE (Energy ETF); it could give provide a heads-up on short-term market direction. Final note: Anything can happen at anytime! Be prepared and trade well!
Econ Data
GDP at 7:30 AM (CT), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Thursday 03/25/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The Key Levels provided nice entry points (I shorted 1175.25). We only got one Close above 1175.50 on the 5-minute chart; and even then it was only a tick above 75.50. Prices above 1175.50 were rejected all morning. After failing to facilitate trade above 1175, the only logical direction was Down. We got rotation in the Key Areas on the way down and observed initiative selling below 1169 in the last hour of trade. Tomorrow's GDP number should provide clarity on direction, but I would say Bears shouldn't get too comfortable just yet.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
The Key Levels provided nice entry points (I shorted 1175.25). We only got one Close above 1175.50 on the 5-minute chart; and even then it was only a tick above 75.50. Prices above 1175.50 were rejected all morning. After failing to facilitate trade above 1175, the only logical direction was Down. We got rotation in the Key Areas on the way down and observed initiative selling below 1169 in the last hour of trade. Tomorrow's GDP number should provide clarity on direction, but I would say Bears shouldn't get too comfortable just yet.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Thursday 03/25/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We saw Responsive Buyers defend the 1161 level on Wednesday and we continued to build acceptance in the 1163-1164 area. This High Volume Area can be used to establish short-term bias; bullish above it, and bearish below it. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1157.50; we could get heavier liquidation below that level. Market internals as well as the Russel and S&P400 Midcaps closed near their lows, which is at the very least a caution flag. On the upside, if price remains above 1163 overnight, we could blow right through the Overnight Resistance; and test the High of Year. Be careful around the 1171.25 area; if we get up there, I would anticipate them to run the stops, followed by a quick move down. It's just a scenario I'm prepared for; doesn't mean I "expect" it to play out exactly like that, but just something to keep in mind (e.g. scale out of Longs there). The next big level after 1171.25 is 1182-1183.
Econ Data
Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM(CT), Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies to the House Committee on Financial Services about the Fed's exit strategy at 9:00 AM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
We saw Responsive Buyers defend the 1161 level on Wednesday and we continued to build acceptance in the 1163-1164 area. This High Volume Area can be used to establish short-term bias; bullish above it, and bearish below it. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1157.50; we could get heavier liquidation below that level. Market internals as well as the Russel and S&P400 Midcaps closed near their lows, which is at the very least a caution flag. On the upside, if price remains above 1163 overnight, we could blow right through the Overnight Resistance; and test the High of Year. Be careful around the 1171.25 area; if we get up there, I would anticipate them to run the stops, followed by a quick move down. It's just a scenario I'm prepared for; doesn't mean I "expect" it to play out exactly like that, but just something to keep in mind (e.g. scale out of Longs there). The next big level after 1171.25 is 1182-1183.
Econ Data
Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM(CT), Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies to the House Committee on Financial Services about the Fed's exit strategy at 9:00 AM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Wed. 03/24/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Last night's post called for a consolidation day with narrower range (8-10 points), which played out well today. The day session range was 7.75 points, and the 24-hour session range was 9 points. I was anticipating Responsive Buying at 1161, and that turned out to be the low tick of the day. We're continuing to build acceptance (volume) in the 1163.50-1164 area. I expect selling pressure below 1164, and buying pressure above it.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Last night's post called for a consolidation day with narrower range (8-10 points), which played out well today. The day session range was 7.75 points, and the 24-hour session range was 9 points. I was anticipating Responsive Buying at 1161, and that turned out to be the low tick of the day. We're continuing to build acceptance (volume) in the 1163.50-1164 area. I expect selling pressure below 1164, and buying pressure above it.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Wed. 03/24/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
After Tuesday's late afternoon upside breakout, a test of the breakout level (1165.50) is expected; and it looks like we may even get it in overnight trading (ES currently trading at 1167). My plan for tomorrow is to buy the dips into the Key Support Areas, and Short the upside moves into Resistance. There wasn't much buying interest in the 1170-1170.50 area, and I'll be looking to Short it on first touch. I'd be cautious initiating Longs above 1170 since I'm anticipating significant rotation in the 1170-1180 area. If the break-out is "real", I would expect 1163 to hold; a break of 1158.50 would make me suspicious of this upside breakout move and we may get a stronger move down (failure of breakout). I'm expecting consolidation here, and a narrower range day (8-10 points).
Econ Data
Durable Goods Orders at 7:30 AM (CT), New Home Sales at 9:00 AM (CT), and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
After Tuesday's late afternoon upside breakout, a test of the breakout level (1165.50) is expected; and it looks like we may even get it in overnight trading (ES currently trading at 1167). My plan for tomorrow is to buy the dips into the Key Support Areas, and Short the upside moves into Resistance. There wasn't much buying interest in the 1170-1170.50 area, and I'll be looking to Short it on first touch. I'd be cautious initiating Longs above 1170 since I'm anticipating significant rotation in the 1170-1180 area. If the break-out is "real", I would expect 1163 to hold; a break of 1158.50 would make me suspicious of this upside breakout move and we may get a stronger move down (failure of breakout). I'm expecting consolidation here, and a narrower range day (8-10 points).
Econ Data
Durable Goods Orders at 7:30 AM (CT), New Home Sales at 9:00 AM (CT), and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Tuesday 03/23/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
In last night's post I wrote, "Given the recent strength, I'm anticipating either consolidation or break-out to the upside." -- and we got both today: consolidation followed by a break-out to new yearly highs. The morning consolidation chop was very boring to trade, so kudos to you if you sat through it and were able to take advantage of the late afternoon break-out. Looking at the 1-Minute ES/NYSE-TICK chart, we got positive divergences a few minutes prior to the break-out. We also got positive delta 10 minutes prior to the break-out, with very little selling interest in the 1164.25-1164.75 area. 1170-1170.50 is near-term resistance now. A test of the 1163-1165 wouldn't surprise me. I'm also expecting rotation in the 1170-1180 area; a breakout above that could get us to 1200s in a hurry.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Tuesday 03/23/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
ES is trading just a few points away from its high of year (1165.50), and we could easily test and even break through that level tomorrow. The Nasdaq (NQ) made fresh highs on the year on Monday. The Russel and Dow are also trading close to their highs on the year. There are three scenarios possible here: consolidation, break-out, break-down. Given the recent strength, I'm anticipating either consolidation or break-out to the upside. Based on the current price action, my bias is Bullish. The Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1153.25; bias would shift to Bearish below that level. We have the Existing Home Sales data out at 9:00 AM (CT); that could be the catalyst that motivates traders to enter the market with some conviction. We are seeing some volatility re-enter the market as well. The day session range over the last two days has been 14.75 points and 15.50 points. Keep that in mind when initiating counter-trend trades, or setting targets for trend trades. Trade well!
Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), Existing Home Sales at 9:00 AM (CT), Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies before the House Financial Services Committee at 9:00 AM (CT)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
ES is trading just a few points away from its high of year (1165.50), and we could easily test and even break through that level tomorrow. The Nasdaq (NQ) made fresh highs on the year on Monday. The Russel and Dow are also trading close to their highs on the year. There are three scenarios possible here: consolidation, break-out, break-down. Given the recent strength, I'm anticipating either consolidation or break-out to the upside. Based on the current price action, my bias is Bullish. The Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1153.25; bias would shift to Bearish below that level. We have the Existing Home Sales data out at 9:00 AM (CT); that could be the catalyst that motivates traders to enter the market with some conviction. We are seeing some volatility re-enter the market as well. The day session range over the last two days has been 14.75 points and 15.50 points. Keep that in mind when initiating counter-trend trades, or setting targets for trend trades. Trade well!
Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), Existing Home Sales at 9:00 AM (CT), Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies before the House Financial Services Committee at 9:00 AM (CT)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Monday, March 22, 2010
Monday 03/22/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I had marked Initial Support as 1144.25-1146.25, but Responsive Buyers came in ahead of that Area and pushed price back up. We got some rotation at Initial Resistance and then the Strong Resistance area, but the afternoon consolidation (chop) was frustrating to trade. It happens and we just have to roll with what the market gives us. Today's buying activity balances out Friday's selling activity. So far, most signs are pointing towards upside continuation.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
I had marked Initial Support as 1144.25-1146.25, but Responsive Buyers came in ahead of that Area and pushed price back up. We got some rotation at Initial Resistance and then the Strong Resistance area, but the afternoon consolidation (chop) was frustrating to trade. It happens and we just have to roll with what the market gives us. Today's buying activity balances out Friday's selling activity. So far, most signs are pointing towards upside continuation.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Monday 03/22/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The House approved the health-care bill earlier today, and the S&P 500 futures have responded by opening gap down, and are currently trading at 1151. After the trend down on Friday, the primary plan for tomorrow is to short the bounces into the Resistance Areas. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1156.75; I'll actively be looking for short-sell setups below that level. I'll consider Longs within the Key Support Areas, but they will be treated as counter-trend scalps until I see stronger buyers enter the market and push price above 1156.75.
Econ Data
No scheduled econ release. The health-care bill and any news out of Greece.
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
The House approved the health-care bill earlier today, and the S&P 500 futures have responded by opening gap down, and are currently trading at 1151. After the trend down on Friday, the primary plan for tomorrow is to short the bounces into the Resistance Areas. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1156.75; I'll actively be looking for short-sell setups below that level. I'll consider Longs within the Key Support Areas, but they will be treated as counter-trend scalps until I see stronger buyers enter the market and push price above 1156.75.
Econ Data
No scheduled econ release. The health-care bill and any news out of Greece.
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Direction of Blog (and Life)
This weekend marked the end of my schooling at DePaul University, and reaching the finish line is a great feeling of relief and accomplishment! The commencement ceremony is in June, where I'll be receiving my B.S. in Information Systems. Friday also marked the last day of my full-time job as a Data Architect.
Proprietary Trading
I'm taking one week off and start my new position as a full-time professional trader at a Chicago Proprietary Futures Trading firm next Monday, March 29th. I'm very excited to finally be able to jump into trading on a full-time basis, in a professional environment. Going from trading off my laptop while dealing with the distractions at work, to trading off 7 screens surrounded by seasoned traders is a welcome change! My primary market will be the S&P 500 Index Futures, but I'll also be trading Crude Oil and Gold. By the way, please don't ask which firm I'm joining. I'll post information on the firm when I can.
Nightly Key Levels & Scenarios
I've been freely sharing my nightly homework with you for several months now, and have received numerous "thank you" emails from traders all around the world. I'm glad my Blog was able to help your trading. Within the next week or two, the nightly Key Levels & Scenarios will become a Premium Subscription service priced at a reasonable rate of $50/month. In addition to the Key Levels & Scenario, TradeStation users will be able to download my Volume Profile TradeStation Workspace with the updated Key Levels plotted right on the chart, which they can refer to throughout the trading day. I'm not looking to get into the "trading guru" business, and this will be a "no-hype" offering. If my analysis brings value to your trading, then $50 a month is a small price to pay (1 point on 1 e-mini contract). If you don't find the information valuable, please save the negative comments and just move along. My focus will be 100% on trading!
Direction of Blog
The existing content on the public Blog will remain in place. The content of future posts will cover my journey of becoming a successful prop trader. Although I'm very prepared and confident going into this business, success is never a guarantee. All I can do is put in my absolute best effort, remain positive and hope for the best. I'll talk about the challenges and how I deal with them, as well as the positives of trading at a prop firm.
Proprietary Trading
I'm taking one week off and start my new position as a full-time professional trader at a Chicago Proprietary Futures Trading firm next Monday, March 29th. I'm very excited to finally be able to jump into trading on a full-time basis, in a professional environment. Going from trading off my laptop while dealing with the distractions at work, to trading off 7 screens surrounded by seasoned traders is a welcome change! My primary market will be the S&P 500 Index Futures, but I'll also be trading Crude Oil and Gold. By the way, please don't ask which firm I'm joining. I'll post information on the firm when I can.
Nightly Key Levels & Scenarios
I've been freely sharing my nightly homework with you for several months now, and have received numerous "thank you" emails from traders all around the world. I'm glad my Blog was able to help your trading. Within the next week or two, the nightly Key Levels & Scenarios will become a Premium Subscription service priced at a reasonable rate of $50/month. In addition to the Key Levels & Scenario, TradeStation users will be able to download my Volume Profile TradeStation Workspace with the updated Key Levels plotted right on the chart, which they can refer to throughout the trading day. I'm not looking to get into the "trading guru" business, and this will be a "no-hype" offering. If my analysis brings value to your trading, then $50 a month is a small price to pay (1 point on 1 e-mini contract). If you don't find the information valuable, please save the negative comments and just move along. My focus will be 100% on trading!
Direction of Blog
The existing content on the public Blog will remain in place. The content of future posts will cover my journey of becoming a successful prop trader. Although I'm very prepared and confident going into this business, success is never a guarantee. All I can do is put in my absolute best effort, remain positive and hope for the best. I'll talk about the challenges and how I deal with them, as well as the positives of trading at a prop firm.
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Friday 03/19/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (Options Expiration / Quadruple Witching)
Trading on Friday was great! The Key Levels and Scenario posted the night before played out very well. I posted "A reversal of the overnight trend is something to watch out for at the cash open" and we reversed the overnight up move at the cash open. If you check the Day Session Volume Profile Chart I've been posting since Tuesday, you'll see I was anticipating a test of the 1150.25-1151.75 Area which we finally got on Friday.
I noticed several complaints on Twitter/StockTwits of failed TICK Divergence setups on Friday. I typically only act on TICK divergences that occur at the Key Areas I post every night. I've annotated my 1-minute TICK/ES chart below, and I hope it provides you with some insight and helps you identify better setups in the future. That being said, keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time. Secondly, a TICK Divergence shouldn't be the only reason to enter a trade. I typically look for a minimum of two reasons to initiate a trade; but ideally there are three reasons to enter a trade. So my only other recommendation would be make sure you have at least one other reason to enter the trade besides a TICK Divergence.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and best trading!
ES/NYSE TICK 1-Minute Chart (Morning Session)
ES/NYSE TICK 1-Minute Chart (Afternoon Session)
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Trading on Friday was great! The Key Levels and Scenario posted the night before played out very well. I posted "A reversal of the overnight trend is something to watch out for at the cash open" and we reversed the overnight up move at the cash open. If you check the Day Session Volume Profile Chart I've been posting since Tuesday, you'll see I was anticipating a test of the 1150.25-1151.75 Area which we finally got on Friday.
I noticed several complaints on Twitter/StockTwits of failed TICK Divergence setups on Friday. I typically only act on TICK divergences that occur at the Key Areas I post every night. I've annotated my 1-minute TICK/ES chart below, and I hope it provides you with some insight and helps you identify better setups in the future. That being said, keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time. Secondly, a TICK Divergence shouldn't be the only reason to enter a trade. I typically look for a minimum of two reasons to initiate a trade; but ideally there are three reasons to enter a trade. So my only other recommendation would be make sure you have at least one other reason to enter the trade besides a TICK Divergence.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and best trading!
ES/NYSE TICK 1-Minute Chart (Morning Session)
ES/NYSE TICK 1-Minute Chart (Afternoon Session)
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Friday 03/19/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (Options Expiration / Quadruple Witching)
With Thursday being a narrow range day, the Key Levels haven't really changed much. Two sided moves are typical on quadruple witching Friday. A reversal of the overnight trend is something to watch out for at the cash open. We typically get a reversal of the morning trend around 11 AM (CT), or early in the afternoon. Bias is bullish above 1158 and bearish below. If we break out above Wednesday's high (1165.50), I would expect price to tag the 1170 area. On the downside, I'm expecting the 1139.50-1141.50 Support Zone to hold. On the upside, I'm expecting the buying to shut off in the 1177-1179.75 Resistance Zone. If you want to play it safe, sit out the first hour. Trade well!
Econ Data
No scheduled econ releases. Quadruple Witching Friday. Watch out for news out of Europe/Greece.
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
With Thursday being a narrow range day, the Key Levels haven't really changed much. Two sided moves are typical on quadruple witching Friday. A reversal of the overnight trend is something to watch out for at the cash open. We typically get a reversal of the morning trend around 11 AM (CT), or early in the afternoon. Bias is bullish above 1158 and bearish below. If we break out above Wednesday's high (1165.50), I would expect price to tag the 1170 area. On the downside, I'm expecting the 1139.50-1141.50 Support Zone to hold. On the upside, I'm expecting the buying to shut off in the 1177-1179.75 Resistance Zone. If you want to play it safe, sit out the first hour. Trade well!
Econ Data
No scheduled econ releases. Quadruple Witching Friday. Watch out for news out of Europe/Greece.
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Thursday 03/18/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Price bounced off the Initial Support area in overnight trading, and stopped 1 tick ahead of the Overnight Resistance Level after the open. From there, we got a lot of narrow range chop, but price remained below 1162.50 and then broke below the IB Low. From there, we got a minor bounce ahead of Initial Support, which was sold into pushing price 1 tick below Initial Support. Price formed a double-bottom at Initial Support and went on to test the IB Low and ended up closing above the mid-point and VPOC, but below the Overnight Resistance. The fact that price couldn't even test the overnight resistance during the day session signals weakness. Market internals closed on weakness as well, and we may finally get that pullback everyone's been anticipating for days now. Price is currently in a neutral area, and built some acceptance in the 1159-1161 area over the last two days. I'll chalk up the choppy price action this week to quadruple witching and the fact that we're at new yearly highs, so consolidation is to be expected. Next week should be more happening (keeping fingers crossed)!
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Price bounced off the Initial Support area in overnight trading, and stopped 1 tick ahead of the Overnight Resistance Level after the open. From there, we got a lot of narrow range chop, but price remained below 1162.50 and then broke below the IB Low. From there, we got a minor bounce ahead of Initial Support, which was sold into pushing price 1 tick below Initial Support. Price formed a double-bottom at Initial Support and went on to test the IB Low and ended up closing above the mid-point and VPOC, but below the Overnight Resistance. The fact that price couldn't even test the overnight resistance during the day session signals weakness. Market internals closed on weakness as well, and we may finally get that pullback everyone's been anticipating for days now. Price is currently in a neutral area, and built some acceptance in the 1159-1161 area over the last two days. I'll chalk up the choppy price action this week to quadruple witching and the fact that we're at new yearly highs, so consolidation is to be expected. Next week should be more happening (keeping fingers crossed)!
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Thursday 03/18/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The Bull/Bear Line in Sand for tomorrow is 1154. Based on the recent price action and market internals/breadth, the near-term bias is Bullish. The challenge in this kind of market is to keep the personal bias in check, and read the market with an open mind. Can the market fall 15-20 points tomorrow? Sure could, but I'm not going to close my mind to a possible move into the upper 1170s. Both scenarios are possible, and as day traders, we must keep the bias in check and trade what's in front of us. If you get good trade location on your Short positions, take advantage of it and try to hold for a larger move down. Tomorrow's focus will be the Jobless Claims data out at 7:30 AM (CT); so the best trade location may only be available in pre-market.
Econ Data
Consumer Price Index and Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed Survey at 9:00 AM (CT), and EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
The Bull/Bear Line in Sand for tomorrow is 1154. Based on the recent price action and market internals/breadth, the near-term bias is Bullish. The challenge in this kind of market is to keep the personal bias in check, and read the market with an open mind. Can the market fall 15-20 points tomorrow? Sure could, but I'm not going to close my mind to a possible move into the upper 1170s. Both scenarios are possible, and as day traders, we must keep the bias in check and trade what's in front of us. If you get good trade location on your Short positions, take advantage of it and try to hold for a larger move down. Tomorrow's focus will be the Jobless Claims data out at 7:30 AM (CT); so the best trade location may only be available in pre-market.
Econ Data
Consumer Price Index and Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed Survey at 9:00 AM (CT), and EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Wed. 03/17/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Strong up trend most of the day with a late afternoon pullback which was quickly bought up into the close. Market internals were strengthening all day, and resumed an upward slope into the close. The only signs of caution were TF, NQ and EMD closing below VPOC and Mid-Point. ES closed below the day session mid-point and IB High, and right at the VPOC. The market is still Bullish, but these signs are indicative of waning momentum.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Strong up trend most of the day with a late afternoon pullback which was quickly bought up into the close. Market internals were strengthening all day, and resumed an upward slope into the close. The only signs of caution were TF, NQ and EMD closing below VPOC and Mid-Point. ES closed below the day session mid-point and IB High, and right at the VPOC. The market is still Bullish, but these signs are indicative of waning momentum.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Wed. 03/17/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
After the trend up day, the current plan is to buy the dips into Support on first touch and Short the Strong Resistance areas. The Bull/Bear Line in Sand is at 1144. Even though we're quite extended here (sounding like a broken record by now); tomorrow is setting up to be another Bullish day. Of course, things can change quickly when price is leaning too far on any one side (imbalance); but we have to trade it with the information we have in front of us. Price is currently trading in the Initial Resistance area and looks like it could head higher overnight. Trade well!
Econ Data
Producer Price Index at 7:30 AM (CT), EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (CT), Ben Bernanke Speaking before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives on "Banking Supervision" at 1:00 PM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
After the trend up day, the current plan is to buy the dips into Support on first touch and Short the Strong Resistance areas. The Bull/Bear Line in Sand is at 1144. Even though we're quite extended here (sounding like a broken record by now); tomorrow is setting up to be another Bullish day. Of course, things can change quickly when price is leaning too far on any one side (imbalance); but we have to trade it with the information we have in front of us. Price is currently trading in the Initial Resistance area and looks like it could head higher overnight. Trade well!
Econ Data
Producer Price Index at 7:30 AM (CT), EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (CT), Ben Bernanke Speaking before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives on "Banking Supervision" at 1:00 PM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Tuesday 03/16/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Typical FOMC chop session, with two-sided swings in reaction to the Fed announcement. No surprises, really, and the Key Levels homework definitely helped me obtain better trade location. Once you've traded a few Fed days, they definitely become easier to read and trade. I also began watching Volume Delta today, and it was actually quite helpful. I'll post more about it after I've had more screen time. I'm including an annotated 2-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart again today, in case other traders are curious to see some TICK Divergence setups. Today's price action sets us up nicely for tomorrow. Continuation or pullback? Be prepared for both scenarios!
ES/NYSE TICK 2-Min Chart
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Typical FOMC chop session, with two-sided swings in reaction to the Fed announcement. No surprises, really, and the Key Levels homework definitely helped me obtain better trade location. Once you've traded a few Fed days, they definitely become easier to read and trade. I also began watching Volume Delta today, and it was actually quite helpful. I'll post more about it after I've had more screen time. I'm including an annotated 2-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart again today, in case other traders are curious to see some TICK Divergence setups. Today's price action sets us up nicely for tomorrow. Continuation or pullback? Be prepared for both scenarios!
ES/NYSE TICK 2-Min Chart
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Monday, March 15, 2010
Tuesday 03/16/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Anticipating the regular range-bound price action ahead of the FOMC Announcement at 1:00 PM (CT). Although ES filled the gap and closed on a bullish note, the Russel (TF) and Nasdaq-100 (NQ) were unable to close their gaps from Friday, which could be viewed as a warning sign since the Russel has been leading the way on this extended up move. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand for tomorrow is 1138. Below 1138, I believe we could break through the 1134-36 Low Volume Area and test the 1131-1132 area. Btw, the reaction to FOMC Announcements typically consists of fast two-sided moves (whipsaw), so if you're risk averse, it's probably best to sit out 20-30 minutes following the announcement. Trade well!
Econ Data
Housing Starts and Import and Export Prices at 7:30 AM (CT), Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), and FOMC Meeting Announcement at 1:00 PM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Anticipating the regular range-bound price action ahead of the FOMC Announcement at 1:00 PM (CT). Although ES filled the gap and closed on a bullish note, the Russel (TF) and Nasdaq-100 (NQ) were unable to close their gaps from Friday, which could be viewed as a warning sign since the Russel has been leading the way on this extended up move. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand for tomorrow is 1138. Below 1138, I believe we could break through the 1134-36 Low Volume Area and test the 1131-1132 area. Btw, the reaction to FOMC Announcements typically consists of fast two-sided moves (whipsaw), so if you're risk averse, it's probably best to sit out 20-30 minutes following the announcement. Trade well!
Econ Data
Housing Starts and Import and Export Prices at 7:30 AM (CT), Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), and FOMC Meeting Announcement at 1:00 PM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Monday 03/15/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
As I posted on Twitter, the plan for Monday morning was to Short the bounces into the Key Resistance Zones which worked out great. Price was unable to fill the gap off the open, and paused at the Initial Resistance Zone. It then went on to make a lower low. Initiating a Short on the retrace back up was the safer trade, IMO. Trade was better facilitated at lower prices right from the open. On the down move, Price quickly rejected 1136.50-1137.50 (Low Volume Area, 36.75 was my Bull/Bear Line in Sand), and began building value above 1137.50 for remainder of the day. We began seeing more aggressive buyers come in to the market after 2 PM (CT). The NYSE TICK provided some nice entries in the Key S/R Areas. I was talking to a friend earlier today about the benefits of doing your homework and identifying areas to do business, and one of the key benefits is that it keeps you from over trading and opening trades in the middle (chop) area. If you're a new trader and still learning to navigate the markets, you can significantly reduce your risk by simply initiating trades at the Key Levels. I personally use a 6 tick max stop-loss, but if you're new and need some more wiggle room, a 2-3 point stop would work fine as well. Use the Key Levels and fine-tune the entry using the NYSE TICK. Check the 2-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart below highlighting some Divergence setups (note: I use 1-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart in my trading). ES filled Friday's gap near the close. We closed on strength near the high of day, so price action is bullish going into tomorrow's FOMC Announcement, which could provide direction on the next swing.
ES/NYSE TICK 2-Min Chart
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
As I posted on Twitter, the plan for Monday morning was to Short the bounces into the Key Resistance Zones which worked out great. Price was unable to fill the gap off the open, and paused at the Initial Resistance Zone. It then went on to make a lower low. Initiating a Short on the retrace back up was the safer trade, IMO. Trade was better facilitated at lower prices right from the open. On the down move, Price quickly rejected 1136.50-1137.50 (Low Volume Area, 36.75 was my Bull/Bear Line in Sand), and began building value above 1137.50 for remainder of the day. We began seeing more aggressive buyers come in to the market after 2 PM (CT). The NYSE TICK provided some nice entries in the Key S/R Areas. I was talking to a friend earlier today about the benefits of doing your homework and identifying areas to do business, and one of the key benefits is that it keeps you from over trading and opening trades in the middle (chop) area. If you're a new trader and still learning to navigate the markets, you can significantly reduce your risk by simply initiating trades at the Key Levels. I personally use a 6 tick max stop-loss, but if you're new and need some more wiggle room, a 2-3 point stop would work fine as well. Use the Key Levels and fine-tune the entry using the NYSE TICK. Check the 2-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart below highlighting some Divergence setups (note: I use 1-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart in my trading). ES filled Friday's gap near the close. We closed on strength near the high of day, so price action is bullish going into tomorrow's FOMC Announcement, which could provide direction on the next swing.
ES/NYSE TICK 2-Min Chart
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)