Sunday, February 28, 2010
E-MiniPlayer Premium Service Poll
Poll is now closed. Thanks to everyone who responded. I appreciate your feedback!
Monday 03/01/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Historically, the first day of March has been Bullish. On top of that, last week closed on a bullish note, with Buyers clearly in control. The obvious expectation is continuation to the upside. The upper price target for tomorrow is 1113. On the flip side, if price starts heading lower, we have to observe whether Responsive Buyers are stepping in and adding to their Long positions; or liquidating. My Bull/Bear Line in the Sand is 1095, which also happens to be the downside target if price begins heading lower. Anticipating 1095 to hold tomorrow. In the event that price breaks below 1095 on heavy volume, we could see heavier liquidation by the Buyers, and Initiative activity by the Sellers -- in which case, 1087.50 and 1084.50 would be the Key Levels to watch. Good luck, and best trading!
Econ Data
Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (cst), ISM Mfg Index and Construction Spending at 9:00 AM (cst).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Historically, the first day of March has been Bullish. On top of that, last week closed on a bullish note, with Buyers clearly in control. The obvious expectation is continuation to the upside. The upper price target for tomorrow is 1113. On the flip side, if price starts heading lower, we have to observe whether Responsive Buyers are stepping in and adding to their Long positions; or liquidating. My Bull/Bear Line in the Sand is 1095, which also happens to be the downside target if price begins heading lower. Anticipating 1095 to hold tomorrow. In the event that price breaks below 1095 on heavy volume, we could see heavier liquidation by the Buyers, and Initiative activity by the Sellers -- in which case, 1087.50 and 1084.50 would be the Key Levels to watch. Good luck, and best trading!
Econ Data
Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (cst), ISM Mfg Index and Construction Spending at 9:00 AM (cst).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Friday 02/26/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels and the Bull/Bear Line in the Sand at 1095 provided a great "road map" that kept me on the right side of the market. We saw a rejection of the 1099 level, and acceptance of 1102 during the first 30 minute rotation. Following that, price pushed down to 1096.25 on the Existing Home Sales release, and Responsive Buyers came in and quickly rejected the unfair lows in the 1096.25-1098.25 area. From that point on, we continued to see acceptance of prices above 1100, with continuous rejection of lower prices (1100+ considered "fair" value). I'm anticipating this area to hold going into next week. A push below 1095 could result in liquidation and/or initiative selling. A break-out above 1113 could easily push price up to the mid 1120s.
Hope you all performed at your best this week! Have a great weekend!
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
The Key Levels and the Bull/Bear Line in the Sand at 1095 provided a great "road map" that kept me on the right side of the market. We saw a rejection of the 1099 level, and acceptance of 1102 during the first 30 minute rotation. Following that, price pushed down to 1096.25 on the Existing Home Sales release, and Responsive Buyers came in and quickly rejected the unfair lows in the 1096.25-1098.25 area. From that point on, we continued to see acceptance of prices above 1100, with continuous rejection of lower prices (1100+ considered "fair" value). I'm anticipating this area to hold going into next week. A push below 1095 could result in liquidation and/or initiative selling. A break-out above 1113 could easily push price up to the mid 1120s.
Hope you all performed at your best this week! Have a great weekend!
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Friday, February 26, 2010
Friday 02/26/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
After Thursday's recovery to 1100+, bias is bullish going into tomorrow. The obvious catalysts tomorrow morning include the GDP release followed by Existing Home Sales data. You can check the blog post from the previous GDP Release on 01/29/2010 for ideas on how price may react. I could write additional ideas, but it's already past 1:30 AM and Thursday's a really long day for -- plus I need to be up pretty early tomorrow so just the Key Levels will have to do. Bias is bullish above 1095, bearish below.
Econ Data
GDP at 7:30 AM (cst), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (cst), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (cst), and Existing Home Sales at 9:00 AM (cst)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
After Thursday's recovery to 1100+, bias is bullish going into tomorrow. The obvious catalysts tomorrow morning include the GDP release followed by Existing Home Sales data. You can check the blog post from the previous GDP Release on 01/29/2010 for ideas on how price may react. I could write additional ideas, but it's already past 1:30 AM and Thursday's a really long day for -- plus I need to be up pretty early tomorrow so just the Key Levels will have to do. Bias is bullish above 1095, bearish below.
Econ Data
GDP at 7:30 AM (cst), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (cst), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (cst), and Existing Home Sales at 9:00 AM (cst)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Thursday 02/25/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis & A Word on NYSE TICK
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
What a day -- the ES fell 17 handles from the overnight high of 1101.50, and did a complete reversal, and then some, hitting a high of 1103 (+18.5 points from Low of Day) and closing on strength at 1102.25. Unbelievable day, and no doubt a lot of Shorts got squeezed, but there were some hints that kept me on the right side of the market. At 9:40 AM (cst), I posted "Doesn't 'feel' like a trend down day (yet)" and at 11:56 AM (cst), I posted "1087.75-1088 = Support", and began scalping ES on the Long side -- Bear in mind, I still kept my risk on the Longs very tight because the way I was reading the market, a break of 1087 could have resulted in a swift move down to 1084-1085. Between 10:40 and 10:56 AM (cst), ES attempted to test the 1084.50 Low of Day, and failed to do so (hint #1). From 11:08 AM (cst), price remained above the day session mid-point and VWAP (hint #2). After 11:40 AM (cst), Price continued to test and poke above the IB High (hint #3). Looking at the 30-Minute Volume Profile chart, I was seeing acceptance in the 1087.25-1088.25 area (hint #4). By the way, none of what I'm posting here is hindsight analysis; all of this was observed and acted upon in real-time. If you noticed something in real-time that I haven't covered here, please post it in the Comments.
A Word on NYSE TICK
A lot of traders use the NYSE TICK in their trading, and a popular strategy is to fade the TICK extremes (Sell +1200 readings, Buy -1200 readings) and to identify divergences (price makes lower low while TICK makes higher low, etc). Blindly entering trades on TICK Divergences or TICK Extremes is not a viable strategy, and may eventually frustrate you to the point where you ditch the NYSE TICK all together -- which IMHO, would be a mistake because I believe the NYSE TICK is a valuable measure of broader market participation. One of the Keys to using the TICK is to be aware of the Context and the Significant support/resistance areas, and then identify divergences or extremes once price reaches a pre-defined support/resistance area. Check out the 2-minute chart of the ES and NYSE TICK below. Notice how we got a TICK Extreme at 12:50 PM (cst) -- TICK hit a high of +1258, while price hit a high of 1092.50. If you blindly shorted there (I'm sure several traders did), you got stopped out pretty quickly (I'm assuming you use stops). Now move a few bars to the right, and you'll notice another TICK Extreme at 1:02 PM (cst) -- TICK hit a high of 1299 while price hit a high of 1098.50. What's the difference between the two extremes? Look at the Volume! Exhaustion moves happen on High Volume as traders on the other side get flushed out of their positions. This is a TICK Extreme fade trade that could have been taken (I shorted this area and covered at 1096). Trading the TICK is certainly not a science, and more of an Art and like every other indicator or piece of market information, it requires screen time. With enough screen time, you could internalize the patterns of the TICK, and develop a "feel" -- this is difficult to quantify, but in the end, it could keep you out of losing trades or give you a heads-up when the market isn't behaving the way it normally does. I hope you found this information to be of some value, and that it helps you to stay on the right side of the market. At the very least, I hope you won't blindly fade the TICK Extremes.
ES/NYSE TICK 2-Minute Chart
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
What a day -- the ES fell 17 handles from the overnight high of 1101.50, and did a complete reversal, and then some, hitting a high of 1103 (+18.5 points from Low of Day) and closing on strength at 1102.25. Unbelievable day, and no doubt a lot of Shorts got squeezed, but there were some hints that kept me on the right side of the market. At 9:40 AM (cst), I posted "Doesn't 'feel' like a trend down day (yet)" and at 11:56 AM (cst), I posted "1087.75-1088 = Support", and began scalping ES on the Long side -- Bear in mind, I still kept my risk on the Longs very tight because the way I was reading the market, a break of 1087 could have resulted in a swift move down to 1084-1085. Between 10:40 and 10:56 AM (cst), ES attempted to test the 1084.50 Low of Day, and failed to do so (hint #1). From 11:08 AM (cst), price remained above the day session mid-point and VWAP (hint #2). After 11:40 AM (cst), Price continued to test and poke above the IB High (hint #3). Looking at the 30-Minute Volume Profile chart, I was seeing acceptance in the 1087.25-1088.25 area (hint #4). By the way, none of what I'm posting here is hindsight analysis; all of this was observed and acted upon in real-time. If you noticed something in real-time that I haven't covered here, please post it in the Comments.
A Word on NYSE TICK
A lot of traders use the NYSE TICK in their trading, and a popular strategy is to fade the TICK extremes (Sell +1200 readings, Buy -1200 readings) and to identify divergences (price makes lower low while TICK makes higher low, etc). Blindly entering trades on TICK Divergences or TICK Extremes is not a viable strategy, and may eventually frustrate you to the point where you ditch the NYSE TICK all together -- which IMHO, would be a mistake because I believe the NYSE TICK is a valuable measure of broader market participation. One of the Keys to using the TICK is to be aware of the Context and the Significant support/resistance areas, and then identify divergences or extremes once price reaches a pre-defined support/resistance area. Check out the 2-minute chart of the ES and NYSE TICK below. Notice how we got a TICK Extreme at 12:50 PM (cst) -- TICK hit a high of +1258, while price hit a high of 1092.50. If you blindly shorted there (I'm sure several traders did), you got stopped out pretty quickly (I'm assuming you use stops). Now move a few bars to the right, and you'll notice another TICK Extreme at 1:02 PM (cst) -- TICK hit a high of 1299 while price hit a high of 1098.50. What's the difference between the two extremes? Look at the Volume! Exhaustion moves happen on High Volume as traders on the other side get flushed out of their positions. This is a TICK Extreme fade trade that could have been taken (I shorted this area and covered at 1096). Trading the TICK is certainly not a science, and more of an Art and like every other indicator or piece of market information, it requires screen time. With enough screen time, you could internalize the patterns of the TICK, and develop a "feel" -- this is difficult to quantify, but in the end, it could keep you out of losing trades or give you a heads-up when the market isn't behaving the way it normally does. I hope you found this information to be of some value, and that it helps you to stay on the right side of the market. At the very least, I hope you won't blindly fade the TICK Extremes.
ES/NYSE TICK 2-Minute Chart
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Thursday 02/25/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
With Wednesday being another inside day, the Key Levels haven't really changed much but there's a higher probability of a break-out from the current Range (range contraction leads to range expansion). My bias is bearish below 1102 and bullish above it. A break of 1090.25 could trigger heavier liquidation and drive price down to the mid 1070s. A break-out above 1105.50 could take us to the 1118-1121 area. My only other concern is that with GDP and Existing Home Sales data out on Friday, we may not get clear direction until then. Keep it tight, stick with momentum, and do not add to a losing position (with strict risk parameters and discipline, averaging into a position works OK on range-bound days).
Econ Data
Durable Goods Orders and Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (cst), Ben Bernanke speaks at 8:00 AM (cst), FHFA House Price Index at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
With Wednesday being another inside day, the Key Levels haven't really changed much but there's a higher probability of a break-out from the current Range (range contraction leads to range expansion). My bias is bearish below 1102 and bullish above it. A break of 1090.25 could trigger heavier liquidation and drive price down to the mid 1070s. A break-out above 1105.50 could take us to the 1118-1121 area. My only other concern is that with GDP and Existing Home Sales data out on Friday, we may not get clear direction until then. Keep it tight, stick with momentum, and do not add to a losing position (with strict risk parameters and discipline, averaging into a position works OK on range-bound days).
Econ Data
Durable Goods Orders and Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (cst), Ben Bernanke speaks at 8:00 AM (cst), FHFA House Price Index at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Wed. 02/24/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Sorry if I sound repetitive, but the Scenario and Key Levels worked out great -- To the Tick on a few price swings. Price remained above 1100 for most of the day, and we got heavy acceptance (volume) in the 1103-1103.75 area. 1097 is an area of interest, and as long as price remains above it, we could see the buying continue into tomorrow.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Sorry if I sound repetitive, but the Scenario and Key Levels worked out great -- To the Tick on a few price swings. Price remained above 1100 for most of the day, and we got heavy acceptance (volume) in the 1103-1103.75 area. 1097 is an area of interest, and as long as price remains above it, we could see the buying continue into tomorrow.
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Wed. 02/24/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Bulls have a fighting chance as long as price remains above 1091 tomorrow. I know there's a lot of Bearish sentiment in the market right now, and we very well could head lower tomorrow, but I have to be open to both scenarios. Lets look at today's price action objectively: Price hit Resistance at 1112.75 and broke below the mid-point, VWAP and Initial Support Zone in the overnight session. So from a technical/charting perspective, we were already setup for some Selling going into the Consumer Confidence release. The negative Consumer Confidence # brought in the Other Time-Frame Seller and we sold off 11.75 points in 20 minutes and consolidated below the mid-point for remainder of the day. OK -- sounds pretty damn bearish, but then we got quick and repeated rejection of the 1090.75-1091.75 area (keep that area in mind for tomorrow), and price rotated above the IB Low and closed at the VWAP. I'd feel more confident on the Sell side if price had closed below the IB Low. As long as Initial Support holds tomorrow, I think we could see a rotation back to 1100+. Pending any news, I'm anticipating a range-bound, rotational day tomorrow where price reaches an area of Support or Resistance and rotates/chops back and forth before moving to the next area. Bias is Bearish below 1091, Bullish above 1102 and neutral to slightly bullish in between. Another Key Level to keep an eye on is today's IB Low at 1094; a break of that area tomorrow could take us back for a re-test of 1090-1091 quickly. Expecting Strong Responsive Buying ahead of the 1076-1077 area, if we get there. Best trading!
Econ Data
New Home Sales at 9:00 AM (cst), Ben Bernanke Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, before the House Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (cst).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Bulls have a fighting chance as long as price remains above 1091 tomorrow. I know there's a lot of Bearish sentiment in the market right now, and we very well could head lower tomorrow, but I have to be open to both scenarios. Lets look at today's price action objectively: Price hit Resistance at 1112.75 and broke below the mid-point, VWAP and Initial Support Zone in the overnight session. So from a technical/charting perspective, we were already setup for some Selling going into the Consumer Confidence release. The negative Consumer Confidence # brought in the Other Time-Frame Seller and we sold off 11.75 points in 20 minutes and consolidated below the mid-point for remainder of the day. OK -- sounds pretty damn bearish, but then we got quick and repeated rejection of the 1090.75-1091.75 area (keep that area in mind for tomorrow), and price rotated above the IB Low and closed at the VWAP. I'd feel more confident on the Sell side if price had closed below the IB Low. As long as Initial Support holds tomorrow, I think we could see a rotation back to 1100+. Pending any news, I'm anticipating a range-bound, rotational day tomorrow where price reaches an area of Support or Resistance and rotates/chops back and forth before moving to the next area. Bias is Bearish below 1091, Bullish above 1102 and neutral to slightly bullish in between. Another Key Level to keep an eye on is today's IB Low at 1094; a break of that area tomorrow could take us back for a re-test of 1090-1091 quickly. Expecting Strong Responsive Buying ahead of the 1076-1077 area, if we get there. Best trading!
Econ Data
New Home Sales at 9:00 AM (cst), Ben Bernanke Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, before the House Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (cst).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Tuesday 02/23/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels and Scenario worked out great! Once price broke below 1103, a test of the 1097-1099 area was expected and that played out well. Every time we broke through an Area of Support, it then became Resistance and provided low-risk Short entries. The 1091 area proved to be solid support remainder of the day, and provided several low-risk Long entries.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/23/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/23/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/23/10
The Key Levels and Scenario worked out great! Once price broke below 1103, a test of the 1097-1099 area was expected and that played out well. Every time we broke through an Area of Support, it then became Resistance and provided low-risk Short entries. The 1091 area proved to be solid support remainder of the day, and provided several low-risk Long entries.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/23/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/23/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/23/10
Monday, February 22, 2010
Tuesday 02/23/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We're close to an inflection point here; either the market breaks out above 1113 and tags the 1120-1125 area, or we break down below 1096 and tests the low to mid 1080s. I don't know if that will happen tomorrow or the day after, but I'm anticipating the move to materialize sometime this week. My near-term bias is bullish above 1097, and bearish below it. Price needs to get above 1109.50 for further upside momentum, or we could easily rotate down to the low 1100s again, with a test of the high 1090s. Back and forth movement is typical as price gets closer to an inflection point; since it's a battle between Buyers and Sellers. Be flexible and nimble -- we could get fast moves in both directions. Don't add to losing positions here, and try to stay on the side of Momentum.
Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst), S&P Case-Shiller HPI at 8:00 AM (cst), State Street Investor Confidence Index and Consumer Confidence at 9:00 AM (cst).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
We're close to an inflection point here; either the market breaks out above 1113 and tags the 1120-1125 area, or we break down below 1096 and tests the low to mid 1080s. I don't know if that will happen tomorrow or the day after, but I'm anticipating the move to materialize sometime this week. My near-term bias is bullish above 1097, and bearish below it. Price needs to get above 1109.50 for further upside momentum, or we could easily rotate down to the low 1100s again, with a test of the high 1090s. Back and forth movement is typical as price gets closer to an inflection point; since it's a battle between Buyers and Sellers. Be flexible and nimble -- we could get fast moves in both directions. Don't add to losing positions here, and try to stay on the side of Momentum.
Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst), S&P Case-Shiller HPI at 8:00 AM (cst), State Street Investor Confidence Index and Consumer Confidence at 9:00 AM (cst).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Monday 02/22/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels and Scenario played out well with price consolidating in a narrow range all day. After six consecutive days of closing near the highs or at least above the mid-point and IB high, today (the 7th day) marked the first negative day with a Close below the mid-point. I'm viewing this as a pause in the recent Bullish price action. A Daily "Close" below 1100 would be a red flag for the Bulls, and a Close below 1090 could shift the control back to the Bears for a larger swing down.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/22/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/22/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/22/10
The Key Levels and Scenario played out well with price consolidating in a narrow range all day. After six consecutive days of closing near the highs or at least above the mid-point and IB high, today (the 7th day) marked the first negative day with a Close below the mid-point. I'm viewing this as a pause in the recent Bullish price action. A Daily "Close" below 1100 would be a red flag for the Bulls, and a Close below 1090 could shift the control back to the Bears for a larger swing down.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/22/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/22/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/22/10
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Monday 02/22/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Unless we get some unexpected news (Bernanke, Greece, etc), I'm anticipating some consolidation up here. We could easily re-test the low 1100s, and I'm anticipating aggressive buying in the 1096.50-1099 Area. Now, in the event, that we don't get aggressive buying in that area, I will use that as a Key piece of information and it would be indicative of a shift in control from the Buyers to the Sellers. We could see some Long liquidation below 1092, but I'm not expecting price to get there tomorrow. Regardless, we must be prepared for all scenarios: anything can happen at any time -- don't try to justify it or over-analyze it, just go with it and trade it!
Econ Data
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke scheduled to appear before the House Financial Services Committee hearing on "Prospects for Employment Growth: Is Additional Stimulus Needed?" at 10 AM (cst).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Unless we get some unexpected news (Bernanke, Greece, etc), I'm anticipating some consolidation up here. We could easily re-test the low 1100s, and I'm anticipating aggressive buying in the 1096.50-1099 Area. Now, in the event, that we don't get aggressive buying in that area, I will use that as a Key piece of information and it would be indicative of a shift in control from the Buyers to the Sellers. We could see some Long liquidation below 1092, but I'm not expecting price to get there tomorrow. Regardless, we must be prepared for all scenarios: anything can happen at any time -- don't try to justify it or over-analyze it, just go with it and trade it!
Econ Data
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke scheduled to appear before the House Financial Services Committee hearing on "Prospects for Employment Growth: Is Additional Stimulus Needed?" at 10 AM (cst).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Friday 02/19/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
I was anticipating Responsive Buyers to push price back up, which worked out very well on Friday. The breakout above the IB High around 10:10-10:15 AM (cst) was a clue that Buyers were in control, and the S&P could tag a higher area of Resistance. I avoided the Short side until price reached the Range Extension area, and then initiated a Short at 1110.00. As I've mentioned before on the blog, I view all price action as information. When price slices right through an area marked as "Strong Resistance" -- that is a Key piece of information and is indicative of strength. That Key piece of information kept me from shorting too early. Any information that keeps me out of bad trades, is just as valuable as information that gets me into the good ones.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/19/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/19/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/19/10
I was anticipating Responsive Buyers to push price back up, which worked out very well on Friday. The breakout above the IB High around 10:10-10:15 AM (cst) was a clue that Buyers were in control, and the S&P could tag a higher area of Resistance. I avoided the Short side until price reached the Range Extension area, and then initiated a Short at 1110.00. As I've mentioned before on the blog, I view all price action as information. When price slices right through an area marked as "Strong Resistance" -- that is a Key piece of information and is indicative of strength. That Key piece of information kept me from shorting too early. Any information that keeps me out of bad trades, is just as valuable as information that gets me into the good ones.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/19/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/19/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/19/10
Friday, February 19, 2010
Friday 02/19/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Anticipating Responsive Buyers to come in tomorrow morning. My bias is bullish above 1090 and bearish below. Tomorrow is also options expiration, so be flexible and go with the momentum. Check out the Review/Analysis from December's OpEx on Friday 12/18/2009 if you'd like to get an idea of the type of moves we may see tomorrow. The prices now are about the same as December as well.
Econ Data
Consumer Price Index at 7:30 AM (cst)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Anticipating Responsive Buyers to come in tomorrow morning. My bias is bullish above 1090 and bearish below. Tomorrow is also options expiration, so be flexible and go with the momentum. Check out the Review/Analysis from December's OpEx on Friday 12/18/2009 if you'd like to get an idea of the type of moves we may see tomorrow. The prices now are about the same as December as well.
Econ Data
Consumer Price Index at 7:30 AM (cst)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Thursday 02/18/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels and Scenario played out beautifully today! The 1094.25-1096.25 area even provided a nice bounce on the after-hours Fed rate announcement, which caused the ES to dump 10.25 points in a single 5-minute bar. I was expecting a pullback in that 1106-1107 area anyway, so I'm not too concerned about the after-hours drop. I see that quick move down as mostly hedging activity and will look towards tomorrow's Cash Open and Initial Balance for clarity on direction. Bias will be Bullish if ES holds 1093 Level in the overnight Globex session.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/18/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/18/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/18/10
The Key Levels and Scenario played out beautifully today! The 1094.25-1096.25 area even provided a nice bounce on the after-hours Fed rate announcement, which caused the ES to dump 10.25 points in a single 5-minute bar. I was expecting a pullback in that 1106-1107 area anyway, so I'm not too concerned about the after-hours drop. I see that quick move down as mostly hedging activity and will look towards tomorrow's Cash Open and Initial Balance for clarity on direction. Bias will be Bullish if ES holds 1093 Level in the overnight Globex session.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/18/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/18/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/18/10
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Thursday 02/18/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I was going over some of my posts from December, 2009 and here we are two months later with the S&P 500 trading in the same price area. Check out the Key Levels post for Tuesday 12/15/2009 and Thursday 12/17/2009 -- notice how the Key Levels from then and now coincide. You can also check out the Market Review/Analysis posts for 12/15/09 and 12/17/09 to get an idea of how price reacted last time we were trading in this area. My bias is bullish above 1198.75, bearish below 1094 and neutral to bullish in between. That being said, I'm anticipating rotation in the Strong Support/Resistance Areas regardless of direction.
Econ Data
Producer Price Index and Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (cst), Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed Survey at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst), and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:00 AM (cst).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
I was going over some of my posts from December, 2009 and here we are two months later with the S&P 500 trading in the same price area. Check out the Key Levels post for Tuesday 12/15/2009 and Thursday 12/17/2009 -- notice how the Key Levels from then and now coincide. You can also check out the Market Review/Analysis posts for 12/15/09 and 12/17/09 to get an idea of how price reacted last time we were trading in this area. My bias is bullish above 1198.75, bearish below 1094 and neutral to bullish in between. That being said, I'm anticipating rotation in the Strong Support/Resistance Areas regardless of direction.
Econ Data
Producer Price Index and Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (cst), Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed Survey at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst), and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:00 AM (cst).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Wed. 02/17/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Scenario posted last night ("Expecting two-sided moves, and an overall range-bound day tomorrow") worked out well today. I was hoping we would break above 1100, but then again, we've now put in four consecutive Up days with Closes near the High of Day. Perhaps this upside reversal is getting a bit tired and could use a little breather -- I just thought we'd get the breather after tagging the 1107.50 area.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/17/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/17/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/17/10
The Scenario posted last night ("Expecting two-sided moves, and an overall range-bound day tomorrow") worked out well today. I was hoping we would break above 1100, but then again, we've now put in four consecutive Up days with Closes near the High of Day. Perhaps this upside reversal is getting a bit tired and could use a little breather -- I just thought we'd get the breather after tagging the 1107.50 area.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/17/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/17/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/17/10
Wed. 02/17/2010 - Crude Oil Futures Review/Analysis
Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures
Range-bound day in Crude, but the Key Levels worked out fairly well.
CL 5-Minute Chart for 02/17/10
Range-bound day in Crude, but the Key Levels worked out fairly well.
CL 5-Minute Chart for 02/17/10
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Wed. 02/17/2010 - Crude Oil Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures
Very short on time today so put these together in a hurry -- lets see how they play out.
CL - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Very short on time today so put these together in a hurry -- lets see how they play out.
CL - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Wed. 02/17/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We've had three consecutive positive days with price closing at or near the High of Day. Typically, I would look for consolidation but if we get positive Econ Data tomorrow morning, we could easily break through 1100. I'm anticipating the Buying to shut off in the 1106-1107.50 Area. Expecting two-sided moves, and an overall range-bound day tomorrow. The pre-market activity on the Econ releases will also provide some reference points and near-term direction.
Econ Data
Housing Starts and Import and Export Prices at 7:30 AM (cst), Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst), Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (cst), FOMC Minutes and Treasury Budget at 1:00 PM (cst)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
We've had three consecutive positive days with price closing at or near the High of Day. Typically, I would look for consolidation but if we get positive Econ Data tomorrow morning, we could easily break through 1100. I'm anticipating the Buying to shut off in the 1106-1107.50 Area. Expecting two-sided moves, and an overall range-bound day tomorrow. The pre-market activity on the Econ releases will also provide some reference points and near-term direction.
Econ Data
Housing Starts and Import and Export Prices at 7:30 AM (cst), Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst), Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (cst), FOMC Minutes and Treasury Budget at 1:00 PM (cst)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Tuesday 02/16/2010 - Crude Oil Futures Review/Analysis
Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures
Solid up-trend in Crude, with clear action around Support/Resistance areas. By that, I mean when Crude broke through an Area of Resistance, it then acted as Support on a re-test.
CL 5-Minute Chart for 02/16/10
Solid up-trend in Crude, with clear action around Support/Resistance areas. By that, I mean when Crude broke through an Area of Resistance, it then acted as Support on a re-test.
CL 5-Minute Chart for 02/16/10
Tuesday 02/16/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels and Scenario posted last night played out well, and although I was too busy to put on any trades, my view of the market was clear and I wasn't looking for Shorting opportunities into the up-trend. I mention this because a year ago, this was not the case and I would have been fighting the trend all day. But today's price action, although boring for better part of the day, seemed very clear to me. The NYSE TICK spent majority of the day above the zero line, with modest moves down to the -600 area. Looking at the 30-minute Day Session Profile, we can see that price remained above the IB High from 10:30 AM (cst) on.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/16/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/16/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/16/10
The Key Levels and Scenario posted last night played out well, and although I was too busy to put on any trades, my view of the market was clear and I wasn't looking for Shorting opportunities into the up-trend. I mention this because a year ago, this was not the case and I would have been fighting the trend all day. But today's price action, although boring for better part of the day, seemed very clear to me. The NYSE TICK spent majority of the day above the zero line, with modest moves down to the -600 area. Looking at the 30-minute Day Session Profile, we can see that price remained above the IB High from 10:30 AM (cst) on.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/16/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/16/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/16/10
Monday, February 15, 2010
Tuesday 02/16/2010 - Crude Oil Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures
Just started looking at Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures on NYMEX and tracking some Key Levels for my education. Accuracy will improve over time as I learn and adapt the Key Levels for that specific market.
CL - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Just started looking at Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures on NYMEX and tracking some Key Levels for my education. Accuracy will improve over time as I learn and adapt the Key Levels for that specific market.
CL - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Tuesday 02/16/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Based on last week's Buying activity, I'm anticipating upward continuation. We're heading into heavy Areas of Resistance, but also have strong Support below (1064-1067). Unless we get some news-driven activity (Greece, etc), I'm anticipating rotational moves regardless of overall direction. Tuesday is also light on the economic data front, with market-moving econ data coming out later in the week.
Econ Data
Empire State Mfg Survey at 7:30 AM (cst), Treasury International Capital at 8:00 AM (cst), Housing Market Index at 12 PM (cst).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Based on last week's Buying activity, I'm anticipating upward continuation. We're heading into heavy Areas of Resistance, but also have strong Support below (1064-1067). Unless we get some news-driven activity (Greece, etc), I'm anticipating rotational moves regardless of overall direction. Tuesday is also light on the economic data front, with market-moving econ data coming out later in the week.
Econ Data
Empire State Mfg Survey at 7:30 AM (cst), Treasury International Capital at 8:00 AM (cst), Housing Market Index at 12 PM (cst).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Friday 02/12/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Had a great time on Friday, although those afternoon pullbacks went a little deeper than I expected. On the late afternoon pullback, we had Mid-Point, VWAP, and IB High as Support, which provided a solid bounce with a close at the High of Day. Given the strong close, I'm anticipating continuation into the next trading session. It looks like price could have gone higher but ran out of time.
Btw, I will begin trading Crude in the near future so if I get time, I may post Key Levels and Review for Crude as well.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/12/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/12/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/12/10
Had a great time on Friday, although those afternoon pullbacks went a little deeper than I expected. On the late afternoon pullback, we had Mid-Point, VWAP, and IB High as Support, which provided a solid bounce with a close at the High of Day. Given the strong close, I'm anticipating continuation into the next trading session. It looks like price could have gone higher but ran out of time.
Btw, I will begin trading Crude in the near future so if I get time, I may post Key Levels and Review for Crude as well.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/12/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/12/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/12/10
Friday, February 12, 2010
Friday 02/12/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Bulls have shown continued strength over the last couple of days. With the host of econ data coming out tomorrow, we could get strong movements in either direction. We have solid support areas below, and I would expect rotation on first touch. We also have well defined Resistance Areas above. There's an open gap at 1096.25, and that level could act as magnet if buyers continue pushing prices higher.
Econ Data
Retail Sales at 7:30 AM (cst), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (cst), Business Inventories at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst), EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:00 AM (cst), Treasury Budget at 1:00 PM (cst)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Bulls have shown continued strength over the last couple of days. With the host of econ data coming out tomorrow, we could get strong movements in either direction. We have solid support areas below, and I would expect rotation on first touch. We also have well defined Resistance Areas above. There's an open gap at 1096.25, and that level could act as magnet if buyers continue pushing prices higher.
Econ Data
Retail Sales at 7:30 AM (cst), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (cst), Business Inventories at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst), EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:00 AM (cst), Treasury Budget at 1:00 PM (cst)
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Thursday 02/11/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Although the day began with some choppy price action, price respected the Key Levels very nicely, and put in a solid up trend once it broke above the IB High. As I mentioned earlier this week, that 1054-1055 area was Key Support for Bulls, and the Low of Day was 1057.50. The afternoon was a bit frustrating since price just consolidated near the highs. 1072.25 was identified as a Key Pivot/Support Level and I posted about it on Twitter/StockTwits. That Level held all afternoon. Lets see if Bulls can maintain control going into tomorrow.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/11/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/11/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/11/10
Although the day began with some choppy price action, price respected the Key Levels very nicely, and put in a solid up trend once it broke above the IB High. As I mentioned earlier this week, that 1054-1055 area was Key Support for Bulls, and the Low of Day was 1057.50. The afternoon was a bit frustrating since price just consolidated near the highs. 1072.25 was identified as a Key Pivot/Support Level and I posted about it on Twitter/StockTwits. That Level held all afternoon. Lets see if Bulls can maintain control going into tomorrow.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/11/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/11/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/11/10
Chasing Greatness In Trading
I haven't written a blog post for many months now, but recently something caught my attention that I felt I had to comment on. Dr. Brett Steenbarger of Traderfeed, whom I greatly respect and admire, wrote a post about being conservative and not having an "all-in" attitude so that you can weather the inevitable trading setbacks with ease and keep moving forward. While I generally agree with most of what Dr. Brett writes about, this time I have quite a different opinion. As such I wrote a comment to his post, and I'm reproducing it below as a post of its own as I believe it has something worthy to say. I hope someone out there can benefit from it.
.................................................................................
I think it really depends on who you are and what your objective is when it comes to the issue of your attitude towards loss in trading. If you're just trying to make a safe, smooth, decent return on your cash, then yes conservative is the way to think. However, if your goal is to be a world class trader- among the best- then such a conservative attitude won't cut it in my opinion.
I think where traders get it wrong is confusing account volatility with risk. This isn't "risk" in the truest sense of the word. Risk, to me, is risk of ruin. If you have a demonstrated positive edge to your trading across varying market conditions, and you have a risk of ruin that is virtually nil, is it truly "risky" if you have large account volatility? I would argue otherwise. The only risk here is emotional risk. That's what account volatility is to me when a trader has a persistent edge and no risk of ruin due to correct overall position sizing. It's only emotional risk because under such conditions the drawdowns will be recovered and new equity highs will be made. Just like you recovered 2.5% in no time, an aggressive trader can recover 15% or more in no time. Same thing, just amplified. The only issue is whether the trader can stomach the drawdowns.
And so if you think in this way, then you also realize that to be a true world-class trader, you must train yourself to stomach the drawdowns that come with pushing for the big returns. That's what it's all about. All the greats we hear about were aggressive. They didn't become great and make countless millions by being conservative and being happy with small rates of return to avoid account volatility. Later on when they created hedge funds they may have started really caring about minimizing drawdowns because you can't raise investor money with big drawdowns, but in general most of these guys weren't afraid to risk big when they had conviction, and that's what made them the huge money and that's how they became legends.
As for the skier mentioned in the NY article, I think the message from that article is distorted in this context. He had exactly the same attitude as all the greats have in all sports. Not afraid to put himself on the line and risk painful failure to achieve great things. However, he was also immature and had drinking problems, and those were his real vices- not his all-in mentality in his sport. If he had landed that jump, he would have been called a hero and been exalted for his great boldness and skill. And rightly so. It wasn't this that was his downfall, it was his lack of self-awareness and maturity.
As is with traders. The greats that make millions have an all-in mentality, but this is tempered with prudence and self-awareness and isn't the same as being careless and risking ruin. All-in in this case means being willing to bet big and stomach big hits in going for stellar returns, while at the same time keeping true risk- the risk of ruin- at an extreme minimum.
That, to me, is the essence of trading in the big leagues, or being in any kind of big leagues. You don't get there taking the cautious comfortable route. You get there by being willing to handle adversity that others can't, while doing it with an air of prudence. And THAT is what I'm aiming for, and what I think every trader chasing greatness has to aspire to.
Ziad
.................................................................................
I think it really depends on who you are and what your objective is when it comes to the issue of your attitude towards loss in trading. If you're just trying to make a safe, smooth, decent return on your cash, then yes conservative is the way to think. However, if your goal is to be a world class trader- among the best- then such a conservative attitude won't cut it in my opinion.
I think where traders get it wrong is confusing account volatility with risk. This isn't "risk" in the truest sense of the word. Risk, to me, is risk of ruin. If you have a demonstrated positive edge to your trading across varying market conditions, and you have a risk of ruin that is virtually nil, is it truly "risky" if you have large account volatility? I would argue otherwise. The only risk here is emotional risk. That's what account volatility is to me when a trader has a persistent edge and no risk of ruin due to correct overall position sizing. It's only emotional risk because under such conditions the drawdowns will be recovered and new equity highs will be made. Just like you recovered 2.5% in no time, an aggressive trader can recover 15% or more in no time. Same thing, just amplified. The only issue is whether the trader can stomach the drawdowns.
And so if you think in this way, then you also realize that to be a true world-class trader, you must train yourself to stomach the drawdowns that come with pushing for the big returns. That's what it's all about. All the greats we hear about were aggressive. They didn't become great and make countless millions by being conservative and being happy with small rates of return to avoid account volatility. Later on when they created hedge funds they may have started really caring about minimizing drawdowns because you can't raise investor money with big drawdowns, but in general most of these guys weren't afraid to risk big when they had conviction, and that's what made them the huge money and that's how they became legends.
As for the skier mentioned in the NY article, I think the message from that article is distorted in this context. He had exactly the same attitude as all the greats have in all sports. Not afraid to put himself on the line and risk painful failure to achieve great things. However, he was also immature and had drinking problems, and those were his real vices- not his all-in mentality in his sport. If he had landed that jump, he would have been called a hero and been exalted for his great boldness and skill. And rightly so. It wasn't this that was his downfall, it was his lack of self-awareness and maturity.
As is with traders. The greats that make millions have an all-in mentality, but this is tempered with prudence and self-awareness and isn't the same as being careless and risking ruin. All-in in this case means being willing to bet big and stomach big hits in going for stellar returns, while at the same time keeping true risk- the risk of ruin- at an extreme minimum.
That, to me, is the essence of trading in the big leagues, or being in any kind of big leagues. You don't get there taking the cautious comfortable route. You get there by being willing to handle adversity that others can't, while doing it with an air of prudence. And THAT is what I'm aiming for, and what I think every trader chasing greatness has to aspire to.
Ziad
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Wed. 02/10/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Yes, the volume was thin, but I thought it was a great day for active day traders. So far, we've continuously seen rejection of the 1055 area, which means most traders are expecting that level to hold. But considering how many times price has already bounced off that area, I would be a little skeptical if price headed down there again. We could get a quick flush down to the 1043s if that area doesn't hold next time around. Based on the price action so far, a push up to the 1085 area wouldn't be too surprising. There are a couple of Resistance Zones along the way that we have to deal with -- but I'm no longer viewing those areas as strong obstacles. A little more positive news, and we could get there in a hurry. We're not seeing a Change in Trend just yet, and looking at the Big Picture, the trend is still down with consolidation in the 1053-1070 area. 1053-1055 is the area to watch if Bulls are to maintain control.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/10/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/10/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/10/10
Yes, the volume was thin, but I thought it was a great day for active day traders. So far, we've continuously seen rejection of the 1055 area, which means most traders are expecting that level to hold. But considering how many times price has already bounced off that area, I would be a little skeptical if price headed down there again. We could get a quick flush down to the 1043s if that area doesn't hold next time around. Based on the price action so far, a push up to the 1085 area wouldn't be too surprising. There are a couple of Resistance Zones along the way that we have to deal with -- but I'm no longer viewing those areas as strong obstacles. A little more positive news, and we could get there in a hurry. We're not seeing a Change in Trend just yet, and looking at the Big Picture, the trend is still down with consolidation in the 1053-1070 area. 1053-1055 is the area to watch if Bulls are to maintain control.
ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/10/10
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/10/10
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/10/10
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