Unless we get some unexpected news (Bernanke, Greece, etc), I'm anticipating some consolidation up here. We could easily re-test the low 1100s, and I'm anticipating aggressive buying in the 1096.50-1099 Area. Now, in the event, that we don't get aggressive buying in that area, I will use that as a Key piece of information and it would be indicative of a shift in control from the Buyers to the Sellers. We could see some Long liquidation below 1092, but I'm not expecting price to get there tomorrow. Regardless, we must be prepared for all scenarios: anything can happen at any time -- don't try to justify it or over-analyze it, just go with it and trade it!
Econ Data
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke scheduled to appear before the House Financial Services Committee hearing on "Prospects for Employment Growth: Is Additional Stimulus Needed?" at 10 AM (cst).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Your s/r levels are a good tool to use on a big picture basis (still within the intra day trading scope).
ReplyDeleteBut you touched on a great point there about keeping an eye open for possibilities. I found that the moment I started thinking of the daily, or weekly picture I started to get biased towards a point of view that has been loss causing in the past.
I found that coming into day with not much more than daily floor pivots and their mid lines (plus previous day high and lows) it kinda helps to be a little clueless (if you will) and really keep the mind open.
Try as one night, looking at anything else subconsciously colors my mind to market bias. And I haven't been able to separate those filters out yet.
I have found it more profitable to be in a state of mind where I could truly say....I don't have to clue..." as to where the market was going.
Hi Sandy, you're absolutely right -- you have to start the day with an open mind. I like to come in to the day with some scenarios in mind, and typically the day plays out according to one of my "pre-scripted" scenarios. But I never impose my scenario on to the market and I repeat to myself "I DO NOT KNOW what will happen next and Anything can happen at any time". I'm going to print that out in big bold letters and have it visible at my desk throughout the day when I switch to full-time trading next month.
ReplyDeletethe one thing that was observed was that unless there was obvious news like a big fomc announcement or something similar purportedly "important" news driven event. Price on the ES generally stayed within the R1 - PP - S1 area just about all the time and oscillates back and forth.
ReplyDeleteWhich is simply a way of saying that it's range bound within X and Y prices.
And further that (again obviously), if it spent most of its time above the PP and bumped against R1 often, then a tendency to drift upwards was observed. and vice versa for below PP.
But then again, tomorrow might the the day the exact opposite will happen...he he...
On the other hand, there are some that will suggest the floor pivots and s/r lines are an amateurs' tools and the pros will never use anything as obvious as that. Which IMO has considerable merit on it's own.
In fact, there is reason to suggest that other markets as compared to index futures display as much (if not more) oscillatory behaviors around their respective floor s/r's.
An observation I am currently noticing in some other markets I am watching.