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Friday, December 30, 2011
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Friday, December 23, 2011
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Monday, December 19, 2011
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Monday, December 12, 2011
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Monday, December 5, 2011
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Monday, November 28, 2011
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Wed. 11/23
Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
The fast liquidation move below 1180.50 mentioned in yesterday's Trade Plan materialized in the overnight session, with the Selling shutting off 3 ticks ahead of the 1166 Support. Heading into the day session, we have Pre-Market Support at 1170-1172, followed by Initial Support at 1165.50-1167. Below 1165.50, 1157-1158 is a KEY area (NVPOC at 1158), and we could get an aggressive Buy Response there. Use the Opening Range to determine which side is in short-term control (Price above OR = Buyers in Control, Price below OR = Sellers in Control). Unless we get an Open Drive to the upside, the expectation is for a Balanced session, with Responsive Buyers active at Support and Responsive Sellers active at Resistance (b-Shaped profile with Selling tail). The 1184-1185.25 Resistance Zone could cap the upside, with 1189-1191 being an extreme (unlikely that we'll tag this today). The U.S. markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving, so expect lighter volume today with choppy price action -- be selective on Trade Location and setups. ES is set to open below Value.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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The fast liquidation move below 1180.50 mentioned in yesterday's Trade Plan materialized in the overnight session, with the Selling shutting off 3 ticks ahead of the 1166 Support. Heading into the day session, we have Pre-Market Support at 1170-1172, followed by Initial Support at 1165.50-1167. Below 1165.50, 1157-1158 is a KEY area (NVPOC at 1158), and we could get an aggressive Buy Response there. Use the Opening Range to determine which side is in short-term control (Price above OR = Buyers in Control, Price below OR = Sellers in Control). Unless we get an Open Drive to the upside, the expectation is for a Balanced session, with Responsive Buyers active at Support and Responsive Sellers active at Resistance (b-Shaped profile with Selling tail). The 1184-1185.25 Resistance Zone could cap the upside, with 1189-1191 being an extreme (unlikely that we'll tag this today). The U.S. markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving, so expect lighter volume today with choppy price action -- be selective on Trade Location and setups. ES is set to open below Value.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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Tuesday, November 22, 2011
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Tuesday 11/22
Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
Sellers remained in Control and the 1199 Resistance Level capped the upside in the overnight session. Heading into the day session, we have Initial Support at 1184-1185.25. Holding above that area would bring the previous VPOC at 1190 and the gap fill at 1190.75 into play as targets. Unless we get an Open Drive to the downside, there's a high probability of testing the 1189.75-1190.75 area. Today's Bull/Bear Zone is at 1189-1191. On a break and hold above 1191, we have yesterday's Value Area High and the overnight VPOC at 1195.75. A break-out above 1195.75 would be indicative of Initiative Buying, and we'd have to be cautious on the Short side. On the downside, a break below yesterday's Low of 1180.50 could lead to a quick move down to 1174.50 and 1170-1172. Overall, the expectation is for Responsive Buyers to be more active on tests of Support now and the short-term bias is Bullish above 1184-1185.25.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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Sellers remained in Control and the 1199 Resistance Level capped the upside in the overnight session. Heading into the day session, we have Initial Support at 1184-1185.25. Holding above that area would bring the previous VPOC at 1190 and the gap fill at 1190.75 into play as targets. Unless we get an Open Drive to the downside, there's a high probability of testing the 1189.75-1190.75 area. Today's Bull/Bear Zone is at 1189-1191. On a break and hold above 1191, we have yesterday's Value Area High and the overnight VPOC at 1195.75. A break-out above 1195.75 would be indicative of Initiative Buying, and we'd have to be cautious on the Short side. On the downside, a break below yesterday's Low of 1180.50 could lead to a quick move down to 1174.50 and 1170-1172. Overall, the expectation is for Responsive Buyers to be more active on tests of Support now and the short-term bias is Bullish above 1184-1185.25.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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Monday, November 21, 2011
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Monday 11/21
Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
We had the Bull/Bear Area to establish bias at 1211-1213 and the Notes for O/N Session mentioned that "holding below it brings the 1199 and 1189.50-1191.50 Zones into play; the expectation is for Responsive Buyers to be active there on first test." ES failed at Friday's Low, and we got a test of 1199 and a double-bottom 2 ticks ahead of the 1191.50 Support. From there, Responsive Buyers pushed ES back to the 1199 area (broken support = resistance). Heading into the day session, we have Resistance at 1199 and 1201.25-1203.25, and Initial Support at 1189-1191. ES is set to open below Value, which could attract Responsive Buyers -- we want to see an Open Drive to the downside or an Open Auction Out of Range, with ES holding below the OR High and the Opening price before pressing on the Sell side. Holding above the Opening Range could result in a test of Initial Resistance at 1207-1209, and the Bull/Bear Zone at 1211-1213. Above that, we have the gap fill at 1213.50 and the previous VPOC at 1214. On the downside, the expectation is for Responsive Buyers to be active at 1189-1191. A swift break of that Support Area would indicate very weak Buyers.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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We had the Bull/Bear Area to establish bias at 1211-1213 and the Notes for O/N Session mentioned that "holding below it brings the 1199 and 1189.50-1191.50 Zones into play; the expectation is for Responsive Buyers to be active there on first test." ES failed at Friday's Low, and we got a test of 1199 and a double-bottom 2 ticks ahead of the 1191.50 Support. From there, Responsive Buyers pushed ES back to the 1199 area (broken support = resistance). Heading into the day session, we have Resistance at 1199 and 1201.25-1203.25, and Initial Support at 1189-1191. ES is set to open below Value, which could attract Responsive Buyers -- we want to see an Open Drive to the downside or an Open Auction Out of Range, with ES holding below the OR High and the Opening price before pressing on the Sell side. Holding above the Opening Range could result in a test of Initial Resistance at 1207-1209, and the Bull/Bear Zone at 1211-1213. Above that, we have the gap fill at 1213.50 and the previous VPOC at 1214. On the downside, the expectation is for Responsive Buyers to be active at 1189-1191. A swift break of that Support Area would indicate very weak Buyers.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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Friday, November 18, 2011
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Friday 11/18
Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
ES held above the 1208.50 Support in the overnight session while the 1229-1231 Bull/Bear Zone capped the upside. Heading into the day session, the expectation is for Responsive Sellers to be more active off the open. Today's Bull/Bear Zone to establish bias is at 1229.25-1231.25; Sellers remain in Control below, while a break and hold above it would indicate Buyers re-gaining Control. The primary downside targets include the gap fill at 1215 and the previous VPOC at 1211. Yesterday's Value Area Low is at 1212.75, and unless we're getting strong Selling, it's safer to cover/scale-out of Shorts by 1213 since Responsive Buyers could be active in that area. We have Initial Resistance at 1224-1226; a break and hold above that area would indicate weak Sellers and ES could re-test the 1234 area. Overall, if we hold above 1209-1211, the expectation is for ES to balance within yesterday's range, while a break below 1209 could result in a test of 1203.25 and 1199-1201. Use the Opening Range and Opening Type to establish immediate bias. Unless we get an Open Drive to the upside, the focus will be on the Sell side off the open.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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ES held above the 1208.50 Support in the overnight session while the 1229-1231 Bull/Bear Zone capped the upside. Heading into the day session, the expectation is for Responsive Sellers to be more active off the open. Today's Bull/Bear Zone to establish bias is at 1229.25-1231.25; Sellers remain in Control below, while a break and hold above it would indicate Buyers re-gaining Control. The primary downside targets include the gap fill at 1215 and the previous VPOC at 1211. Yesterday's Value Area Low is at 1212.75, and unless we're getting strong Selling, it's safer to cover/scale-out of Shorts by 1213 since Responsive Buyers could be active in that area. We have Initial Resistance at 1224-1226; a break and hold above that area would indicate weak Sellers and ES could re-test the 1234 area. Overall, if we hold above 1209-1211, the expectation is for ES to balance within yesterday's range, while a break below 1209 could result in a test of 1203.25 and 1199-1201. Use the Opening Range and Opening Type to establish immediate bias. Unless we get an Open Drive to the upside, the focus will be on the Sell side off the open.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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Thursday, November 17, 2011
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Thursday 11/17
Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
The 1239.25-1241.25 Resistance provided ideal trade location to Sell in the overnight session. Responsive Buyers shut off the Selling at the 1220.25 Support, and pushed ES back to yesterday's range. Heading into the day session, 1229-1231 is a KEY price area for Buyers. We'll be using the 1229-1231 area to establish short-term bias, and the 1244.50-1246.50 Bull/Bear Zone for overall bias. The primary catalyst this morning is the Philly Fed Survey at 9 AM (CT) -- we typically get range-bound two-way trade heading into this econ report, so be mindful of that during the first half hour. Above 1229-1231, we have Initial Resistance at 1239.25-1241.25, followed by 1244.50-1246.50 (Bull/Bear Zone) and the Resistance Zone at 1248.50-1250.50 (NVPOC at 1248.75). Below 1229, we have Initial Support at 1223-1225, followed by 1218.25-1220.25 and 1214-1215 (NVPOC at 1214). ES is set to open below Value.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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The 1239.25-1241.25 Resistance provided ideal trade location to Sell in the overnight session. Responsive Buyers shut off the Selling at the 1220.25 Support, and pushed ES back to yesterday's range. Heading into the day session, 1229-1231 is a KEY price area for Buyers. We'll be using the 1229-1231 area to establish short-term bias, and the 1244.50-1246.50 Bull/Bear Zone for overall bias. The primary catalyst this morning is the Philly Fed Survey at 9 AM (CT) -- we typically get range-bound two-way trade heading into this econ report, so be mindful of that during the first half hour. Above 1229-1231, we have Initial Resistance at 1239.25-1241.25, followed by 1244.50-1246.50 (Bull/Bear Zone) and the Resistance Zone at 1248.50-1250.50 (NVPOC at 1248.75). Below 1229, we have Initial Support at 1223-1225, followed by 1218.25-1220.25 and 1214-1215 (NVPOC at 1214). ES is set to open below Value.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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Wednesday, November 16, 2011
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Wed. 11/16
Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
ES balanced in a wide range in the overnight session, with the Selling shutting off ahead of the 1237.75 open gap, while 1258.75 capped the upside. Heading into the day session, we have the Bull/Bear Line in Sand at 1248-1250 (Previous VPOC at 1249) and Initial Resistance at 1251.75-1253.75 (Open Gap at 1253.75). On the downside, we still have an Open Gap at 1237.75 and a NVPOC at 1237. The 1229-1231 Initial Support is KEY for Buyers, and a break and hold below it could eventually bring the NVPOCs at 1214 and 1207.50 into play. On the upside, holding above 1244 would open the door for testing the Bull/Bear Area as well as the Resistance Zones above. On the upside, the 1256.75-1258.75 Resistance Zone is KEY. A breakout above that area would eventually bring the NVPOCs at 1273.75 and 1278.25 and the Open Gaps at 1273.25 and 1281 into play. The next primary catalyst in pre-market is Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (CT), while the primary catalyst during the day session is the Housing Market Index at 9 AM (CT). The short-term bias heading into the day is bearish, but I expect Responsive Buyers at the Support Zones below with 1229-1231 being the one to hold. Use the Opening Range and Opening Type to establish immediate bias off the open. Sellers are in Control below 1244-1246 (Pre-Mkt Resistance).
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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ES balanced in a wide range in the overnight session, with the Selling shutting off ahead of the 1237.75 open gap, while 1258.75 capped the upside. Heading into the day session, we have the Bull/Bear Line in Sand at 1248-1250 (Previous VPOC at 1249) and Initial Resistance at 1251.75-1253.75 (Open Gap at 1253.75). On the downside, we still have an Open Gap at 1237.75 and a NVPOC at 1237. The 1229-1231 Initial Support is KEY for Buyers, and a break and hold below it could eventually bring the NVPOCs at 1214 and 1207.50 into play. On the upside, holding above 1244 would open the door for testing the Bull/Bear Area as well as the Resistance Zones above. On the upside, the 1256.75-1258.75 Resistance Zone is KEY. A breakout above that area would eventually bring the NVPOCs at 1273.75 and 1278.25 and the Open Gaps at 1273.25 and 1281 into play. The next primary catalyst in pre-market is Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (CT), while the primary catalyst during the day session is the Housing Market Index at 9 AM (CT). The short-term bias heading into the day is bearish, but I expect Responsive Buyers at the Support Zones below with 1229-1231 being the one to hold. Use the Opening Range and Opening Type to establish immediate bias off the open. Sellers are in Control below 1244-1246 (Pre-Mkt Resistance).
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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Tuesday, November 15, 2011
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Tuesday 11/15
Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
We had the new Bull/Bear Area at 1247-1249, and the break and hold below it resulted in a move down to the NVPOC at 1237. Heading into the day session, we have Pre-Market Support at 1235.25-1237.25 (NVPOC 1237 and Open Gap 1237.75), followed by Initial Support at 1229.50-1231.50. The expectation is for Responsive Buyers to hold ES above Initial Support. A break below 1229 would indicate Sellers back in Control and ES could be setting up for eventually moving down to the NVPOC at 1214. On the upside, the primary target is the 1247-1249 Bull/Bear Area, followed by the Open Gap at 1252. A break and hold above 1252 would bring the 1256.25-1258.25 Initial Resistance Zone into play, as well as the 1261.50 NVPOC and the Open Gap at 1261.75. The primary catalyst this morning is Retail Sales at 7:30 AM (CT) and Business Inventories at 9 AM (CT). Use the Opening Range and Opening Type to determine immediate bias. If we open in the 1237 Area or below it, anything but an Open Drive to the downside would provide edge to Buyers.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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We had the new Bull/Bear Area at 1247-1249, and the break and hold below it resulted in a move down to the NVPOC at 1237. Heading into the day session, we have Pre-Market Support at 1235.25-1237.25 (NVPOC 1237 and Open Gap 1237.75), followed by Initial Support at 1229.50-1231.50. The expectation is for Responsive Buyers to hold ES above Initial Support. A break below 1229 would indicate Sellers back in Control and ES could be setting up for eventually moving down to the NVPOC at 1214. On the upside, the primary target is the 1247-1249 Bull/Bear Area, followed by the Open Gap at 1252. A break and hold above 1252 would bring the 1256.25-1258.25 Initial Resistance Zone into play, as well as the 1261.50 NVPOC and the Open Gap at 1261.75. The primary catalyst this morning is Retail Sales at 7:30 AM (CT) and Business Inventories at 9 AM (CT). Use the Opening Range and Opening Type to determine immediate bias. If we open in the 1237 Area or below it, anything but an Open Drive to the downside would provide edge to Buyers.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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Monday, November 14, 2011
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Monday 11/14
Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
The 1270.75 Resistance held to the tick in the overnight session and we got a pullback to the low 1250s, where Responsive Buyers were active on first test. Heading into the day session, we have the previous VPOC at 1261.50 and the previous close (gap fill) at 1261.75. A break above Initial Resistance would bring 1270.75 into play, with the open gap at 1273.25 and NVPOC at 1273.75 above that. The 1272.75-1274.75 will likely cap the upside. In the event of a downside move, we have Support at 1251-1253 followed by the Bull/Bear Area at 1248.25-1249.25. The selling could shut off by 1248.25. With no important econ releases, the expectation is for a Balanced session with Responsive Buyers active at Support and Responsive Sellers active at Resistance. Overall, Buyers remain in Control above the Bull/Bear Area with 1272.75-1274.75 as the final upside target on the day. Use the opening range, and opening type to determine immediate bias off the open.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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The 1270.75 Resistance held to the tick in the overnight session and we got a pullback to the low 1250s, where Responsive Buyers were active on first test. Heading into the day session, we have the previous VPOC at 1261.50 and the previous close (gap fill) at 1261.75. A break above Initial Resistance would bring 1270.75 into play, with the open gap at 1273.25 and NVPOC at 1273.75 above that. The 1272.75-1274.75 will likely cap the upside. In the event of a downside move, we have Support at 1251-1253 followed by the Bull/Bear Area at 1248.25-1249.25. The selling could shut off by 1248.25. With no important econ releases, the expectation is for a Balanced session with Responsive Buyers active at Support and Responsive Sellers active at Resistance. Overall, Buyers remain in Control above the Bull/Bear Area with 1272.75-1274.75 as the final upside target on the day. Use the opening range, and opening type to determine immediate bias off the open.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Video Review for Friday 11/11/2011
The following two videos review and recap Friday 11/11/2011:
Part 1
Part 2
The videos were recorded before the Sunday night Globex open and mentioned that ES could make a push for 1270, and ES made a push towards 1270 off the Globex open. We have Resistance at 1270.75, and 1272.75-1274.75 could cap the upside in the overnight session.
Part 1
Part 2
The videos were recorded before the Sunday night Globex open and mentioned that ES could make a push for 1270, and ES made a push towards 1270 off the Globex open. We have Resistance at 1270.75, and 1272.75-1274.75 could cap the upside in the overnight session.
ES - Trade Plan & 5-min Chart for 11/11/2011
Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
In the overnight session, ES held above the 1233.75 Support and tested the 1251 Resistance. Heading into the day, lets keep in mind that today is Veteran's day and the bond market as well as banks are closed, which could lead to a lower volume, range-bound Balanced session. ES is set to open above Value, and any push above the overnight high could attract Responsive Sellers. On the upside, we have Pre-Mkt Resistance at 1251-1253, and Initial Resistance at 1256.50-1258.50; expecting the Buying to shut off there. On the downside, the Selling could shut off by the 1235.75-1237.75 Support, with 1230-1232 being an extreme. This all assumes that we get a normal market, NOT driven by unexpected news out of Europe. The primary catalyst this morning is Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (CT). Use the opening range, and the 1248.50-1249 Micro Bull/Bear Area to establish short-term directional bias and the Bull/Bear Line in Sand at 1260.50 to establish overall directional bias.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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In the overnight session, ES held above the 1233.75 Support and tested the 1251 Resistance. Heading into the day, lets keep in mind that today is Veteran's day and the bond market as well as banks are closed, which could lead to a lower volume, range-bound Balanced session. ES is set to open above Value, and any push above the overnight high could attract Responsive Sellers. On the upside, we have Pre-Mkt Resistance at 1251-1253, and Initial Resistance at 1256.50-1258.50; expecting the Buying to shut off there. On the downside, the Selling could shut off by the 1235.75-1237.75 Support, with 1230-1232 being an extreme. This all assumes that we get a normal market, NOT driven by unexpected news out of Europe. The primary catalyst this morning is Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (CT). Use the opening range, and the 1248.50-1249 Micro Bull/Bear Area to establish short-term directional bias and the Bull/Bear Line in Sand at 1260.50 to establish overall directional bias.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
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Friday, November 11, 2011
11/11/11 - Veteran's Day
Friday is Veteran's day (bank holiday) and the bond market is closed. Here are a couple of charts from last year's Veteran's day. I hope you find them helpful.
"History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes"
ES 5-minute Chart from 11/11/2010
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ES Daily Volume Profile Chart from 11/11/2010
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"History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes"
ES 5-minute Chart from 11/11/2010
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ES Daily Volume Profile Chart from 11/11/2010
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Thursday, November 10, 2011
ES - Trade Plan & 5-min Chart for 11/10/2011
Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
ES found Responsive Buyers at the 1219.75 Support in the overnight session. The break above the 1233.50-1235.50 Resistance led to a test of yesterday's VPOC at 1244.75. Heading into the day session, the expectation is for Responsive Sellers to be active on tests of Resistance, and Sellers remain in Control below the 1257-1259 Bull/Bear Area. The expectation is for Responsive Sellers to push ES back into yesterday's range -- that will be the real test of Responsive Buyers. ES could still setup for testing 1257 if we see aggressive Buyers enter the market at the Support Zones below -- 1257 is still a valid upside target, but we'll likely head lower before we head higher. Use the Opening Range and the 1248.50-1249 Micro Bull/Bear Area to establish immediate bias. Anything but an Open Drive to the upside will provide edge on the Short side up here. ES will need to break and hold below 1240 in order to gain some momentum on the downside.
Today's 5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
Link to full size chart
ES found Responsive Buyers at the 1219.75 Support in the overnight session. The break above the 1233.50-1235.50 Resistance led to a test of yesterday's VPOC at 1244.75. Heading into the day session, the expectation is for Responsive Sellers to be active on tests of Resistance, and Sellers remain in Control below the 1257-1259 Bull/Bear Area. The expectation is for Responsive Sellers to push ES back into yesterday's range -- that will be the real test of Responsive Buyers. ES could still setup for testing 1257 if we see aggressive Buyers enter the market at the Support Zones below -- 1257 is still a valid upside target, but we'll likely head lower before we head higher. Use the Opening Range and the 1248.50-1249 Micro Bull/Bear Area to establish immediate bias. Anything but an Open Drive to the upside will provide edge on the Short side up here. ES will need to break and hold below 1240 in order to gain some momentum on the downside.
Today's 5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
Link to full size chart
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Friday, November 4, 2011
Thursday, June 2, 2011
Friday, May 20, 2011
Using the IB Range in Your Trading
Stats are your friend. The stat that has seemed to come into play for me almost every day this week is the normal IB range. Statistically the normal IB range for ES is 6-8 points. The extreme for an IB range would be 10-12 points. To clarify the IB stands for Initial Balance, which is obtained from the 1st hour high to the 1st hour low of the cash session.
Ok great, now how do you use this information to your advantage? Regardless of what technique or system you use, you should have pre-defined levels of interest for the day’s trading session. Once the trading range starts to approach one of your levels, it is either a good time to close an existing trade that has been going in your direction and/or look for a counter-trend rotation.
Another analogy that I’ve heard applied to the IB range is that the width of the IB range is similar to a lamp base. The narrower the range, the farther it will tip over when it breaks. The wider the range, the more stable it is. With a wide IB of 8-10 points, one would look for signs of responsive buying in close proximity to the IB Low. I’ll use today May 20th, 2011 as an example. Today, the first hour high was established at 40.50. We had some negative news and ES started driving towards our first support zone for the day. The zone ranged from 32.50-30.50 which would put us at an 8-10pt IB range. I saw some positive tick divergence at 32.25 so I went long there. We got a 2 pt rotation from there which allowed me to scale out of most of my position. Given the internals and context at the time, I expected the IB Low to be tested and broken. Given the wide IB range I expected responsive buyers to be active below the IB Low. So I looked to my next support zone which was 29-27.50. Again I saw some positive divergence on the first test of the zone and even more divergence on the second test. Responsive buyers were clearly active below the wide IB.
Conversely on days that we have a narrow IB range, say in the 5-6 point range, you will typically see further extension and I wouldn’t look for counter-trend trades until typically 1.5x - 2x IB range has been achieved.
To summarize:
-Average IB range is 6-8 pts with 10-12 pts being the extreme in the current environment.
-Wide IB: responsive buyers below the IB and responsive sellers above the IB.
-Narrow IB: expect range extension once broken.
ES 1-Minute Chart for 5/20/2011
By Scott (@TWSS79 on Twitter)
Ok great, now how do you use this information to your advantage? Regardless of what technique or system you use, you should have pre-defined levels of interest for the day’s trading session. Once the trading range starts to approach one of your levels, it is either a good time to close an existing trade that has been going in your direction and/or look for a counter-trend rotation.
Another analogy that I’ve heard applied to the IB range is that the width of the IB range is similar to a lamp base. The narrower the range, the farther it will tip over when it breaks. The wider the range, the more stable it is. With a wide IB of 8-10 points, one would look for signs of responsive buying in close proximity to the IB Low. I’ll use today May 20th, 2011 as an example. Today, the first hour high was established at 40.50. We had some negative news and ES started driving towards our first support zone for the day. The zone ranged from 32.50-30.50 which would put us at an 8-10pt IB range. I saw some positive tick divergence at 32.25 so I went long there. We got a 2 pt rotation from there which allowed me to scale out of most of my position. Given the internals and context at the time, I expected the IB Low to be tested and broken. Given the wide IB range I expected responsive buyers to be active below the IB Low. So I looked to my next support zone which was 29-27.50. Again I saw some positive divergence on the first test of the zone and even more divergence on the second test. Responsive buyers were clearly active below the wide IB.
Conversely on days that we have a narrow IB range, say in the 5-6 point range, you will typically see further extension and I wouldn’t look for counter-trend trades until typically 1.5x - 2x IB range has been achieved.
To summarize:
-Average IB range is 6-8 pts with 10-12 pts being the extreme in the current environment.
-Wide IB: responsive buyers below the IB and responsive sellers above the IB.
-Narrow IB: expect range extension once broken.
ES 1-Minute Chart for 5/20/2011
By Scott (@TWSS79 on Twitter)
Saturday, May 14, 2011
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Charts for Week of 05/09/11
Monday 5/09
Tuesday 5/10
Wednesday 5/11
Thursday 5/12
Friday 5/13
Tuesday 5/10
Wednesday 5/11
Thursday 5/12
Friday 5/13
Sunday, May 8, 2011
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Charts for Week of 05/02/11
Monday 5/02
Tuesday 5/03
Wed. 5/04
Thursday 5/05
Friday 5/06
Tuesday 5/03
Wed. 5/04
Thursday 5/05
Friday 5/06
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Charts for Week of 04/25/11
Late post, but here are the 5-minute charts for the week of 4/25/11.
Monday 4/25
Tuesday 4/26
Wed. 4/27
Thursday 4/28
Friday 4/29
Monday 4/25
Tuesday 4/26
Wed. 4/27
Thursday 4/28
Friday 4/29
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