E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Friday 2/11/11

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Thursday evening)
Today's "P"-Shaped Profile is indicative of Short Covering, but we have to keep the Bullish Context in mind and realize that this is Short Covering within an up-trend. We're working within the 1308.50-1322.25 Balance Area, with the Balance Area VPOC at 1316. We have Resistance at 1316.50-1318.50. A break and hold above 1316.50-1318.50 would confirm Buyers in Control, and could lead to new highs. A break below 1310 could lead to the gap fill at 1307.25, followed by a test of the 1303.75-1305.75 Area. Bigger picture, bias remains bullish above 1303.25.

Trade Plan for Friday 2/11
We're working within the 1308.50-1322.25 Balance Area, with the Balance Area VPOC at 1316. ES balanced below 1316 in the overnight session and built Acceptance at 1314.75. The 1316.50-1318.50 Resistance identified in last night's Review/Analysis post has capped the upside in pre-market. Heading into the day session, the primary catalyst is the Consumer Sentiment # out at 8:55 AM (CT) -- and considering the market is in Balance, the expected opening type is an Open Auction In Range. Keep an eye on the 1314-1316 Area to determine Control. Holding above 1314-1316 would indicate Buyers in Control, and a break & hold below would indicate Sellers in Control. We have an open gap from yesterday's Close at 1318.75, but holding above 1316 opens the door for new highs so I won't be too aggressive on the Short side up there. The next resistance level above 1322.25 is at 1326, followed by strong resistance at 1329.25-1331.25, and I expect any Buying to shut off there. On the downside, a break below 1310 could take us to the 1307.25 gap fill, followed by a test of the 1304-1306 Support Area. The Bull/Bear Line in Sand is at 1303.25, and bigger picture bias remains Bullish above that level.

Econ Data
Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Wholesale Trade at 9:00 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT), 30-Yr Bond Auction at 12:00 PM (CT), Treasury Budget at 1:00 PM (CT), Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply at 3:30 PM (CT).

ES 5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Thursday 2/10/11

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Wednesday evening)
The existing S/R Zones are in-play and we're still working within the 1310-1322.25 developing Balance Area, with the Balance Area VPOC at 1318.25. I'm looking for an expansion of the 1310-1322.25 Balance Area. The next primary catalyst is the Jobless Claims # at 7:30 AM (CT).

Trade Plan for Thursday 2/10
ES tested the bottom of the developing Balance Area at 1310 in the overnight session, and built Acceptance at 1312. Above here, we have Resistance at 1315-1316.50, followed by the Balance Area VPOC at 1318.25 and yesterday's Close (open gap) at 1319.25. Each of these levels can bring in Responsive Sellers, and I expect some rotation at these areas. A break through the 1318.25-1319.25 Area could lead to new highs, so be cautious on the Short side above that area. If we break below 1310, this will be the first test below the developing Balance Area, and I expect Responsive Buyers to be active at the Support Zones. We have an open gap at 1307.25, followed by Initial Support at 1304-1306, and I anticipate Responsive Buyers there. The Bull/Bear Line in Sand is at 1303.25, and the overall bias remains bullish above that level.

Econ Data
Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Wholesale Trade at 9:00 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT), 30-Yr Bond Auction at 12:00 PM (CT), Treasury Budget at 1:00 PM (CT), Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply at 3:30 PM (CT).

ES 5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Wed. 2/9/11

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Tuesday evening)
In the overnight session, we have Support at 1315.25, followed by 1312.25-1313.25. We're working within the 1310-1322.25 developing Balance Area, with the Balance Area VPOC of 1318.25.

Trade Plan for Wednesday 2/9
ES has been trending lower in the overnight session, but has managed to hold above the 1315.25 Support and built Acceptance at 1317. We're working within the 1310-1322.25 developing Balance Area, with the Balance Area VPOC at 1318.25. The overnight Low at 1316 coincides with yesterday's Value Area Low. We want to see if prices below 1316 bring in additional Sellers or Responsive Buyers. On the upside, we want to see if prices above 1320 bring in additional Buyers or Responsive Sellers. We have an open gap at 1321.75, and will likely see Responsive Sellers active on the first test of 1321-1322. A break & hold below 1316 could take us down to 1310, or even to the open gap at 1307.25, where I expect Responsive Buyers to be active. Bigger picture, Buyers are in Control, so I expect the first push below 1310 to get bought pretty aggressively. Given the overall Bullish context, if we break below 1310, my focus will be on the Long side at the Support Zones. On the upside, a break & hold above 1320 could take us to the 1326 area, followed by 1329-1331. The expectation is for Responsive Sellers to be active at 1329-1331, so it's a good place to exit Longs or enter Short. The bias heading into the day is neutral to slightly bearish.

Econ Data
MBA Purchase Applications at 6:00 AM (CT), EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (CT), and 10-Yr Note Auction at 12:00 PM (CT). Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before House Budget Committee on economic, employment and budget issues in Washington at 9:00 AM (CT).

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Tuesday 2/8/11

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Monday evening)
The existing S/R Zones are in-play, and we're trading in a Bullish market context. We haven't seen a blow-off top yet and the expectation is for dips to get bought.

Trade Plan for Tuesday 2/8
Overnight, ES has been consolidating within the upper half of yesterday's range, and has built Acceptance at 1315.75. Holding above 1315.75 during the day session opens the door for a test of 1318.25 and yesterday's high (1320), or even a break above it. Above 1322, the next strong resistance area is 1329-1331. I'll be watching for Responsive Sellers on first test of 1318.25 and 1320-1322, but I'll be cautious there since we tested 1320 yesterday, and 1319.75 overnight. I'm anticipating the downside to be limited to yesterday's 24-hour range, so if we get a move down towards the open gap at 1307.25, my focus will be on the Long side. As I mentioned in my Sunday evening post, the bigger picture expectation is for the market to develop a balance area at higher prices. We haven't seen a blow-off top or exhaustion yet. I'm anticipating the upside to be capped at 1326, or 1329-1331 (extreme). Expecting a range-bound, balanced session. Buyers are in Control.

Econ Data
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 6:30 AM (CT), ICSC-Goldman Store Sales at 6:45 AM (CT), Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), and 3-Yr Note Auction at 12:00 PM (CT).

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones
(will be posted later)

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Monday 2/7/11

Notes for Sunday night Session (posted Sunday evening)
Friday closed with Buyers in Control, but the new yearly high was made on mediocre market internals, which makes it risky to initiate new Longs up here. 1297-1298 is a Key Support Area to keep in mind. I anticipate that area to hold if the market is to continue heading higher. A break below 1297 would be an early warning sign of a shift in Control from Buyers to Sellers. We also have short-term support in the 1303-1304 Area. On the upside, the next significant Resistance Area is at 1314.50-1316.50. I'm looking for the market to build a Balance Area at higher prices this week.

Trade Plan for Monday 2/7
Last night's post called for higher prices and identified the next significant Resistance Area at 1314.50-1316.50. ES broke out to the upside in the overnight session, and the buying shut off 3 ticks ahead of Resistance. I'm looking for the market to build a Balance Area at higher prices, and will be looking for Long opportunities on pullbacks into Support. I'm anticipating rotational trade and a Balanced Session, so I will also look for Responsive Sellers at the Resistance Zones, but given the overall bullish Context, there's more edge on the Long side. Bigger picture, Buyers will remain in Control as long as ES holds above 1297. On the day time-frame, I expect ES to hold above 1303.25, and I expect the 1321-1323 Resistance Zone to cap the upside. The only catalyst today is Consumer Credit at 2:00 PM (CT). Keep an eye out for any new developments out of Egypt.

Econ Data
Consumer Credit at 2:00 PM (CT).

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Friday 2/4/11

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Thursday evening)
The existing S/R Zones are in-play. We have Support at 1295.75-1297.75. Buyers are in Control and I expect ES to hold above that area heading into the Employment report.

Trade Plan for Friday 2/4
The Non-Farm Payroll/Employment Report resulted in a new yearly high at 1308.50, which was sold into on the first attempt. I'll be watching the 1303.25-1303.75 Area to determine which side is in Control. That Area can be used as a micro Bull/Bear Line in Sand; Buyers are in Control above and Sellers could take control below. The current high of year (regular trading hours) is 1306, and Buyers are in Control on a break and hold above that Level. I'll be watching the open to get an idea on how aggressive the Buyers are up here. With the high of year at 1306, the risk is well defined on Shorts -- I will not be aggressive on the Short side on a break and hold above 1306 because the next significant Resistance Zone is up at 1314.50-1316.50. I anticipate the upside to be capped there. Focus will be on the Short side only if ES has trouble holding above 1305.75-1306, or breaks below 1303, and then has trouble at Resistance. We're near the recent highs with Buyers in Control.

Econ Data
Non-Farm Payroll/Employment Report at 7:30 AM (CT) and Monster Employment Index.

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Thursday 2/3/11

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Wed. evening)
The existing S/R Zones are in-play. I'm not expecting any significant move in either direction during the overnight session. I anticipate any Selling to shut off at the 1290.25-1292.25 Support Zone.

Trade Plan for Thursday 2/3
Selling in the overnight session shut off a tick ahead of the 1295.50-1297.00 Support Zone. Although we still have some econ reports due later this morning, the next primary catalyst is the NFP/Employment Report out tomorrow morning. The Bull/Bear Line in Sand is at 1289.75, and the bias is Bullish above that level, with more edge on the Long side. Watch how price acts around 1301.50-1303; that area will determine whether we make new highs today. On the downside, I anticipate the Selling to shut off by 1290. The overall Bias on the day is Bullish, and the focus is on buying pullbacks. Shorts are risky above 1304 since there's a good chance of making new highs above that price level.

Econ Data
Jobless Claims & Productivity and Costs at 7:30 AM (CT), Factory Orders and ISM Non-Mfg Index at 9:00 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT), Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply at 3:30 PM (CT). Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to reporters at the National Press Club at 11:30 AM (CT).

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Wed. 2/2/11

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Tuesday evening)
At this point, Buyers are in Control and I'll be looking to buy pullbacks into Support tomorrow. The existing S/R Zones are in-play, and we have Resistance at 1303.75-1305.75, followed by 1307.50. I expect ES to test 1303.75 at some point tomorrow, so I'll be looking to Short if price moves too far away from that level.

Trade Plan for Wednesday 2/2
It's easy to get caught up in the charts and forget that the markets move because of the participants (the people), and half the U.S. is dealing with a severe snow storm today. Chicago got hit pretty hard and CME has delayed the pit open till 10 AM (CT) -- Globex is unaffected. Participation is likely to be lower today, which means a narrower range, and limited opportunity. After yesterday's Trend Up day, buying pullbacks at Support is a safe strategy. We could get another new high today, but I anticipate Responsive Sellers to be active and sell into it. If we get a push beyond 1306, 1303.75 can be used as a target on Shorts. On the downside, I anticipate the Selling to shut off by the 1290.25-1292.25 Support Zone, if not sooner. I expect a Balanced session, so my focus will be on entering at the edges, while using the middle of the range as a scale-out target and the other side of the range as the final target. A break below 1290 could turn this into a failed breakout -- again, this isn't expected but it's good to be prepared.

Econ Data
MBA Purchase Applications at 6:00 AM (CT), Challenger Job-Cut Report at 6:30 AM (CT), ADP Employment Report at 7:15 AM (CT), and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (CT).

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan for Tuesday 2/1/11

Notes for Overnight Session (posted Monday night)
The existing S/R Zones are in-play. The expectation is for the market to remain Balanced in a range heading into the ISM Mfg Index at 9:00 AM (CT) tomorrow morning. Bias is on the Sell side for now.

Trade Plan for Tuesday 2/1
At 1290+, ES is trading within our Initial Resistance Zone of 1290-1292, and the expectation is for Responsive Sellers to be active at the open. Price action in the overnight session is Bullish, but considering the Trade Location, Risk is on the Long side at 1290+. The primary catalyst today is the ISM Mfg Index at 9:00 AM (CT), and new Buyers are unlikely to commit capital up here ahead of that econ #. On the downside, we have 1285-1286.50 as the initial target, followed by yesterday's Close at 1282.50 as an extended target. In the event that we get buying through 1290-1292, I'll still look for the upper Resistance Zones to provide rotation but I'll be cautious on taking Shorts since a test of the recent highs could be in-play. We are working within the 1267.50-1299.50 Balance Area and it's a risky setup for Buyers and Sellers here.

Econ Data
Motor Vehicle Sales, ISM Mfg Index and Construction Spending at 9:00 AM (CT).

5-min Chart with the EMiniPlayer S/R Zones